1.Bitcoin Market
From April 19 to April 25, 2025, Bitcoin's specific price movements were as follows:
April 19: Bitcoin's price remained relatively stable on this day. In the morning session, it oscillated around $84,450, and in the afternoon, it experienced a mild upward trend, reaching $85,383 and $85,465, indicating that market sentiment was beginning to turn cautiously optimistic.
April 20: After the market opened, Bitcoin faced short-term pressure and quickly retreated to $84,744. However, buying pressure gradually increased, and the price recovered to around $85,200, consolidating within this narrow range. In the afternoon, the market weakened slightly, with the price falling back to $84,028. But after finding support at this lower level, Bitcoin rebounded to $84,623, demonstrating strong buying support.
April 21: Bitcoin continued the rebound momentum from the previous day. It opened steady around $84,540, then rose slightly to $85,126. In the afternoon, market sentiment strengthened significantly, leading to a rapid surge. Bitcoin broke through $85,047 and surged to $87,472, forming a strong breakout pattern in the short term. After briefly consolidating near $87,420, bullish sentiment continued, pushing the price further up to $88,353. This strong rally signified that Bitcoin had officially exited the previous downward channel, entering a new upward cycle in terms of technical formation. On the macroeconomic front, the market was paying close attention to the increasingly strained relationship between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, along with uncertainty regarding the future path of U.S. dollar policies, which boosted Bitcoin’s appeal as "digital gold."
April 22: Due to the significant gains from the previous trading day, Bitcoin experienced a technical pullback in the morning, dropping as low as $86,696. Subsequently, after finding support at this level, Bitcoin resumed its upward trend, breaking through key resistance levels at $87,401 and $88,505. In the afternoon, after the market digested the positive news of "Trump announcing a large tariff cut on China," risk appetite rebounded, and Bitcoin quickly surged from $88,719 to $91,297, successfully breaking through the psychological $90,000 level, indicating a shift in capital towards risk assets.
April 23: Bitcoin remained in a high-range consolidation throughout the day. After a brief technical correction, the price quickly stabilized at $91,164, then continued its strong rebound, surpassing $92,000 and reaching an intraday high of $93,152. The price then maintained a high-level consolidation, with further upward movements to $93,715 and $94,381. During the midnight session, a rapid pullback occurred, with the price dipping as low as $92,202, but the downward movement was quickly reversed, indicating strong buying support in the market.
April 24: After the previous night’s pullback, Bitcoin regained its upward momentum. The price bounced back to $94,133 and consolidated narrowly around $93,530. As volatility gradually contracted, the market direction became clearer. Bitcoin’s price fell back to $91,733, completing a phase of adjustment. The downward movement slowed, and with buying pressure entering, the price slowly rebounded, indicating that short-term support had begun to stabilize.
April 25: Bitcoin continued the rebound from the previous day and remained within an upward channel. The current price movement shows some potential for further upward movement. However, whether the upward trend can be sustained will depend on whether trading volume increases and key resistance levels are successfully broken.
Summary
This week, Bitcoin showed a strong performance, successfully breaking through key resistance levels and restarting its upward channel, driven by both technical and macroeconomic factors. Market attention focused on the increasingly tense relationship between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which heightened uncertainty regarding the future U.S. dollar policy path, thereby increasing Bitcoin’s appeal as a non-sovereign asset for risk-averse investors. Additionally, Trump’s announcement of a significant tariff reduction on China boosted global risk sentiment, driving a rebound in U.S. stocks and a recovery in risk appetite, which further supported Bitcoin’s price increase. Furthermore, ongoing inflationary pressures and an uncertain Federal Reserve policy outlook have led institutional and long-term investors to accelerate their allocation to Bitcoin as a hedge against potential systemic risks.
Overall, Bitcoin has significantly departed from the previous mid-term downward range, with the market structure showing positive changes. Moving forward, attention should be given to whether the price can establish effective support at high levels, while trading volume and on-chain capital flow continuity will be key indicators to validate the continuation of the new bullish trend.
Bitcoin Price Movements (April 19, 2025 - April 25, 2025)
2.Market Dynamics and Macroeconomic Background
Capital Flow
1.Continuous Outflows from Exchanges, Reflecting Increased Long-Term Holding Intentions
In the past 7 days, centralized exchanges (CEX) saw a total outflow of approximately 10,467.8 BTC, indicating that investors are inclined to move assets onto the blockchain or into cold wallets. Bitfinex saw an outflow of 3,638.18 BTC; OKX saw an outflow of 5,120.23 BTC. The outflow trend is generally considered bullish, as it indicates a decrease in selling pressure and a rise in market bullish expectations.
2.Institutional and Whale Dynamics: Divergence Intensifies, Large Holders Continue to Accumulate
CME Position Divergence: There is a clear divergence between institutions and retail investors in the futures market. The net long position of asset management institutions has decreased from $6 billion to $2.5 billion. Meanwhile, the net long position of "other participants" has risen to $1.5 billion, a new high for the year, signaling a shift in retail sentiment towards a bullish outlook.
Number of Whale Wallets Hits a Near-Four-Month High: The number of wallets holding over 1,000 BTC reached 2,107, up by more than 60 since early March. Bitcoin returned to $87,400 on April 21, marking the first breakout of the consolidation range since March 28.
3.ETF Continues to Attract Capital, Driving Rapid Rise in Market Sentiment
April 21: Fidelity ETF saw a net inflow of 306 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 194,578 BTC, with a market value of $17.17 billion. The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $382 million.
April 22: Net inflow of $912 million.
April 23: Net inflow of $917 million.
Technical Indicator Analysis
1.Relative Strength Index (RSI 14)
As of April 25, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin is approximately 39.63, indicating it is in a weak range. This level suggests that short-term buying momentum is still insufficient. While the market has not entered oversold territory, it has pulled back from previous highs, reflecting a weakening of momentum after a recent rapid price increase. If the RSI continues to fall toward 30, it would signal a potential short-term technical pullback. On the other hand, if it begins to rise again and breaks above 50, it could signal support for the start of a new upward cycle.
2.Moving Averages (MA)
As of April 25, the key moving averages for Bitcoin are as follows:
50-day Moving Average (MA50): $74,044.86
200-day Moving Average (MA200): $64,982.88
Currently, Bitcoin's price is above both the MA50 and MA200, indicating that the overall trend remains in a bullish structure for the medium to long term. The MA50 is significantly above the MA200, forming a "golden cross," which is a classic confirmation signal of a mid-term upward trend. Additionally, with the current price being significantly above these two moving averages, attention should be paid to whether a price correction or consolidation might occur to consolidate the foundation for the next upward move.
RSI 14, 50-day SMA, and 200-day SMA Data Chart
3.Key Support and Resistance Levels
Support: The current support levels are $92,000 and $90,000. If Bitcoin’s price drops to these levels, it may find support and rebound.
Resistance: Bitcoin's recent upward resistance level is at $94,000. If the price breaks through this resistance, it could trigger further upward movement.
Market Sentiment Analysis
Price Recovery, Optimism Prevails
This week, Bitcoin's market sentiment shifted from cautious to optimistic. On April 22, Bitcoin's price broke through the key psychological barrier of $90,000, reaching a high of $90,900, marking an important signal of short-term market recovery. Following this, on April 23, Bitcoin broke through $92,000 and $94,000 consecutively, reflecting a clear improvement in market sentiment, with buying pressure increasing and driving prices higher. This rebound is closely linked to the market's reassessment of safe-haven assets and has also been driven by volatility in Federal Reserve policy expectations and macroeconomic uncertainty, making Bitcoin once again the focus of investor attention.
Key Sentiment Indicator (Fear & Greed Index)
According to CoinMarketCap data, as of April 25, the Fear & Greed Index stands at 52, in the "Neutral" zone, indicating that market sentiment has recovered from the previous period of fear. The index has shown a clear upward trend this week:April 21: 34 (Fear);April 22: 38 (Edge of Fear);April 23: 52 (Rapid Improvement in Sentiment);April 24: 53 (Approaching "Greed" Zone).The continuous rise in the sentiment indicator aligns with the strengthening of Bitcoin's price, confirming that the market is gradually recovering from pessimistic expectations. There is a foundation for a continued rebound in the short term.
However, the current index has not yet entered the "Greed" zone. While investor sentiment has improved, it remains in a state of cautious optimism, and whether a sustained upward trend can be formed will depend on the continued alignment of market momentum and macroeconomic news.
Fear & Greed Index Data Chart
Macroeconomic Background
1.Federal Reserve Independence Controversy
On April 21, President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, suggesting that he might be removed from office, which raised concerns about the Fed's independence. This led to a weaker dollar, a decline in stock markets, and a surge in gold prices, as investors flocked to safe-haven assets.
However, on April 23, Trump withdrew his threat to remove Powell, stating that he had no intention of firing him and called for further interest rate cuts. This alleviated concerns about policy interference, causing the dollar to recover and boosting investor confidence.
2.US-China Trade Relations Ease
On April 23, the Trump administration announced that it would “substantially” reduce tariffs on Chinese imports, with the previously set 145% tariff being significantly cut. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen stated that the current tariff levels were unsustainable, and that the US-China trade conflict was expected to cool down.
This move was interpreted by the market as a positive signal for easing US-China relations, improving global market sentiment and driving up the prices of risk assets, including Bitcoin.
3. Hashrate Changes
Between April 19 and April 25, 2025, Bitcoin network hashrate exhibited fluctuations, as detailed below:
On April 18, the hashrate dropped from 888.05 EH/s to 794.95 EH/s, then quickly rebounded to 907.88 EH/s but fell back to around 860 EH/s. On April 19, the downtrend from the previous day continued, reaching a low of 748.20 EH/s, after which it gradually oscillated upwards, peaking at 986.24 EH/s, followed by several rounds of decline to 814.48 EH/s, 752.16 EH/s, and 692.90 EH/s, respectively.
Entering April 21, the hashrate showed a pattern of initial decline followed by a recovery, rising slightly to 813.43 EH/s during the day, and maintaining a fluctuation around 800 EH/s, before rising again to a peak of 982.94 EH/s in the evening. On April 23, the hashrate generally followed a downward trend, falling from 971.10 EH/s to 786.62 EH/s, with a brief consolidation in that region, before further declining to 690.11 EH/s.
On April 24, the hashrate showed some recovery. The Bitcoin network hashrate initially rose to 789.24 EH/s, followed by a slight pullback, before climbing again to 878.77 EH/s, indicating a gradual recovery in miner sentiment. By April 25, as of the time of writing, the hashrate continued the rebound from the previous day, reaching 882.77 EH/s, signaling that miners were gradually regaining confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term growth.
In summary, Bitcoin network hashrate showed wide fluctuations this week. Although a noticeable pullback occurred in the medium term, the short-term recovery indicated a gradual restoration of miner confidence, a rebound in market activity, and some level of network security assurance. The dynamics of miners' computational power, particularly in relation to price fluctuations, will remain a key factor to watch in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin Network Hashrate Data
4. Mining Revenue
According to YCharts data, the daily total revenue (including block rewards and transaction fees) for Bitcoin miners this week is as follows:
April 19: $37.46 million;April 20: $33.00 million;April 21: $34.87 million;April 22: $43.98 million;April 23: $34.35 million.
From the trend, miner revenue briefly rose to $43.98 million on April 22, reaching a peak for the week, but quickly dropped back to $34.35 million on April 23, with a daily decline of 21.9%, indicating increased volatility in miner earnings. In addition, compared to the $65.64 million total revenue on the same date in 2024, the total revenue on April 23 decreased by 47.7% year-over-year.
In terms of revenue per unit of computing power, the current "hash price" is approximately $48.52 per PH/s, which is relatively high for the recent period. This rebound is mainly supported by the recent Bitcoin price rebound, with Bitcoin currently hovering around $93,000. However, at the same time, the total network hashrate continues to set new highs, and the compression effect on unit computing power persists, putting pressure on small and medium-sized miners who still face operational challenges on the edge of profitability, even in the context of rising hash prices.
It is worth noting that some miners who previously chose to "hold and not sell" Bitcoin when the price was low may realize additional profits if they decide to sell their Bitcoin during this price rebound, thus alleviating short-term cash flow pressures. Overall, whether miner revenue can achieve sustainable growth still depends on the continued performance of Bitcoin's price and the changes in on-chain transaction activity in the near future.
Bitcoin Miners Daily Revenue Data
5. Energy Costs and Mining Efficiency
The Bitcoin network completed its latest difficulty adjustment on April 19, 2025, at 17:13:37 (block height 893,088), with a 1.42% increase in difficulty, reaching 123.23T, once again setting a new historical peak. As of April 25, 2025, the total network hashrate is 818.24 EH/s, while the current mining difficulty is 123.23T. The next difficulty adjustment is expected to occur on May 4, with an anticipated decrease of approximately 1.84%, bringing the difficulty down to 120.97T. This trend suggests that as network hashrate increases and mining efficiency improves, the mining difficulty of Bitcoin will continue to undergo fluctuating adjustments, and miner participation and the distribution of network hashrate may change.
According to the latest model data from MacroMicro, as of April 23, 2025, the unit production cost of Bitcoin is approximately $96,160.26, while the spot price on that day is $93,699.11, resulting in a Mining Cost-to-Price Ratio of 1.03. Compared to the previous phase where costs were higher than prices, this ratio has now balanced out with Bitcoin's price rebound. This change indicates that miners' break-even margins are gradually improving, and profitability is being alleviated with the market price rebound, although overall profit margins remain limited. Continuous attention to price trends and the dynamic changes in hashrate investment is necessary.
In addition, a report released by TheMinerMag on April 21, 2025, noted that due to Bitcoin price fluctuations and rising structural costs, the economics of Bitcoin mining deteriorated overall between March and April, with industry profit margins and valuations being squeezed. With Bitcoin's recent price rebound, market expectations may bring some improvement to miners' cost structures and profitability, but the overall competitive landscape remains challenging.
Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Data
6. Policy and Regulatory News
News about Trump:
1.Trump says an agreement with China will be reached within a month
On April 18, U.S. President Trump stated on April 17 (local time) that he is confident an agreement will be reached between China and the U.S. He believes the two sides will come to an agreement within the next three to four weeks and added that if an agreement is not reached, goals will be set and adjustments will be made.
2.Trump: The cryptocurrency industry urgently needs clear regulatory policies
On April 23, U.S. President Trump stated that the cryptocurrency industry urgently needs clear regulatory policies.
3.Trump: No intention to fire Powell, calls for Fed rate cuts
On April 23, during the swearing-in ceremony of SEC Chairman Atkins, Trump expressed that he has no intention of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and called for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. He expressed disappointment that the Fed had not lowered rates more quickly and stated that now is the perfect time for rate cuts.
4.Trump: Tariffs on China will not reach 145%, they will be significantly reduced but not to zero
On April 23, Trump stated that the tariffs on Chinese goods will not reach 145%, and they will be significantly reduced, but not eliminated entirely.
News on Bill Progression:
1.Texas House holds public hearing on Bitcoin Reserve Bill SB 21
On April 24, the Texas House Government Efficiency and Delivery Committee held a public hearing on Bitcoin Reserve Bill SB 21. The bill is currently in a "pending" status, indicating that the committee has not yet held a final vote.
2.New Hampshire Senate Finance Committee votes to pass Bitcoin Reserve Bill
On April 24, New Hampshire's Bitcoin Reserve Bill HB302 passed a vote in the Senate Finance Committee with 4 votes in favor and 1 vote against.
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7. Mining News
UN Report: Illegal Cryptocurrency Mining Becomes a Powerful Tool for Transnational Criminal Organizations to Launder Money
On April 21, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) reported that Southeast Asian transnational criminal groups are using illegal cryptocurrency mining, stablecoins, and Telegram black markets to rapidly expand global money laundering and fraud activities, involving billions of dollars, posing a threat to global security.
Los Angeles Police Seize $2.7 Million in Stolen Bitcoin Mining Equipment
On April 23, the Los Angeles Police Department uncovered a theft case and seized $2.7 million worth of stolen Bitcoin mining equipment. Other stolen items included tequila, pet food, and coffee. Two suspects connected to South American criminal organizations were arrested. The investigation is ongoing, and more arrests are expected. The Los Angeles Police Department has not yet disclosed how the Bitcoin mining equipment will be handled.
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8. Bitcoin News
Global Bitcoin Holdings by Enterprises and Countries (This Week's Statistics)
1.El Salvador Increases Bitcoin Holdings Slightly
On April 25, El Salvador added 1 Bitcoin to its holdings, bringing the total to 6,157.18 Bitcoins, worth approximately $577 million.
2.Strategy Purchases 6,556 Bitcoins
Last week, Strategy bought 6,556 Bitcoins for about $555.8 million. They now hold a total of 538,200 Bitcoins, making them one of the largest Bitcoin holders globally.
3.BlackRock Increases Bitcoin Holdings Through ETF
BlackRock's IBIT fund increased its Bitcoin holdings by 954.535 Bitcoins, worth around $84.18 million, indicating a continued bullish stance.
4.Financial Giant Fidelity Increases Bitcoin Holdings by Over $123 Million for the Third Consecutive Day
On April 25, Fidelity purchased 1,331.15 Bitcoins, worth approximately $123.24 million, through its Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (FBTC) about 13 hours ago. Fidelity has increased its Bitcoin holdings for three consecutive days this week, totaling approximately 4,706 Bitcoins.
5.Australia’s Monochrome Bitcoin ETF Holdings Rise to 343 Bitcoins
As of April 24, Australia's Monochrome Bitcoin ETF (IBTC) held 343 Bitcoins, worth approximately $49.685 million.
6.Multiple Wall Street Institutions Increase Bitcoin Holdings
With Bitcoin's price returning to $90,000, large institutions like Bitwise and ARK Invest have increased their Bitcoin holdings, showing a significant recovery in market confidence.
Economist: Bitcoin May Reach $138,000 in the Next Three Months
On April 19, Cointelegraph reported that economist Timothy Peterson predicted Bitcoin could reach $138,000 within the next three months. He pointed to the current US High Yield Index Effective Yield (which has surpassed 8%) as a key factor, suggesting that historical trends indicate Bitcoin's price may rise between $75,000 and $138,000 within 90 days.
Michael Saylor Emphasizes Bitcoin’s Zero Counterparty Risk
On April 20, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) founder Michael Saylor posted on X, stating that Bitcoin has no counterparty risk, as it does not depend on companies, nations, creditors, fiat currencies, competitors, or cultures and remains resilient even amid chaos.
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Standard Chartered: Concerns Over Fed Independence Could Push Bitcoin to Historic Highs
On April 22, Standard Chartered analyst Jeff Kendrick stated that if concerns about the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve continue, Bitcoin could rise to historic highs. He explained that due to its decentralized ledger, cryptocurrency serves as a hedge against the risks of the existing financial system. This was evident after President Trump hinted that he might remove Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell due to his desire to lower interest rates, which highlighted the risk associated with U.S. Treasury bonds. Kendrick noted that investors have been buying long-term government bonds at a significantly higher yield premium compared to short-term bonds, which benefits Bitcoin. According to LSEG data, Bitcoin reached a six-week high of $90,459. Standard Chartered predicts that Bitcoin's price will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Bitcoin Market Share Climbs to 64.67%, Now Recedes to 64.30%
On April 23, data from TradingView showed that Bitcoin's market dominance (BTC.D) briefly surged to 64.67%, marking a new high since February 2021, before retreating to 64.30%. A high Bitcoin market share indicates stagnation in the altcoin market, but it may also signal a potential bottoming out and upcoming rebound. Historical data suggests that when Bitcoin's market share surged past 60% in November last year, altcoins entered a mini bull market. In 2019 and 2021, Bitcoin’s market dominance also reached peaks above 70%, followed by broad market rallies.
CoinShares Research Director: Bitcoin's Performance Has Outpaced NASDAQ 100 by 15.9% Since U.S. Tariff Announcement
On April 23, CoinShares Research Director James Butterfill posted on X that since the U.S. "liberation day" tariff announcement on February 2, Bitcoin's performance has outpaced the NASDAQ 100 index by 15.9%, highlighting its advantages as a decentralized investment asset.
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Survey: Most Hedge Funds Expect Bitcoin's Dominance to Continue Rising
On April 23, according to a survey by Crypto Insights Group of 50 hedge funds managing assets over $5 billion, 70% of respondents expect Bitcoin's dominance in the crypto market to strengthen further in the next six months, three times higher than the same period last year. This trend may delay the arrival of altcoin season. The report highlights three main factors driving Bitcoin's dominance: 1) In the context of increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, Bitcoin has shown strong resilience, attracting more risk-averse capital; 2) The launch of Bitcoin ETFs and the establishment of strategic Bitcoin reserves in the U.S. have provided institutional investors with clearer regulatory frameworks; 3) Most altcoins have underperformed, prompting investors to prefer Bitcoin, which offers higher liquidity and lower risk.
However, Crypto Insights Group CEO Andy Martinez stated that altcoin season has not been entirely ended, with funds shifting to projects with real revenue, transparent finances, and reasonable token issuance plans.
Coinbase Executive: Sovereign Wealth Funds are Massively Accumulating Bitcoin
On April 24, Coinbase's Head of Institutional Strategy, John D'Agostino, stated that by April 2025, sovereign wealth funds and other institutions are massively accumulating Bitcoin, while retail investors are exiting through ETFs and spot markets.
In a recent interview, this Coinbase executive compared Bitcoin to gold and mentioned that many institutional investors are purchasing Bitcoin as a hedge against currency inflation and macroeconomic uncertainty.
The executive remarked, "Bitcoin trades based on its core characteristics, which are similar to gold, including scarcity, immutability, and portability as a non-sovereign asset. So its trading is exactly how those who believe in Bitcoin want it to trade."
ARK Raises 2030 Bitcoin Bull Market Forecast to $2.4 Million, Citing Institutional Investment as Main Driver
On April 25, ARK Invest raised its Bitcoin 2030 bull market price target to about $2.4 million, with a base case scenario of $1.2 million and a bear market scenario of $500,000. The report stated, "Institutional investment is the largest contributor to the bull market scenario." ARK also noted that Bitcoin is increasingly being accepted as "a more flexible and transparent store of value."
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