1. Bitcoin Market
From March 10, 2025, to March 14, 2025, the specific movement of Bitcoin is as follows:
March 10: Bears Dominate the Market, Breaking Key Support
On March 10, Bitcoin showed an overall downtrend, with bears taking the lead, and the price breaking below the critical support level of $80,000.
On the same day, Bitcoin dropped from around $83,000 to $82,327, then briefly rebounded, but continued to decline to $80,232. Although the market attempted a rebound and the price briefly rose to $83,552, the upward pressure couldn't be sustained, and Bitcoin fell back below the $80,000 mark, touching a low of $79,639.
March 11: Accelerated Decline Followed by a Quick Rebound, Intense Bull-Bear Struggle
Following the previous day’s decline, Bitcoin continued to drop on March 11, reaching a low of $77,703 before briefly rebounding to $79,642. However, bearish sentiment remained strong, and the market quickly broke through the $77,000 support level, hitting a low of $76,905. Subsequently, market sentiment rapidly recovered, and Bitcoin strongly rebounded to $81,961, finally stabilizing around $81,250.
March 12: Intense Battle Between Bulls and Bears, Increased Short-Term Volatility
On March 12, Bitcoin's price rose to $83,341, then oscillated above $82,480. Around 10 a.m., bears pushed the price down rapidly from $83,962 to $80,896. Despite the significant drop, it did not break below the $80,000 level, showing clear short-term market contention.
March 13: Surge and Reversal, Falling Below $80,000 Again
On March 13, Bitcoin quickly stabilized and resumed its upward trend, reaching a high of $84,163 before facing pressure and falling back. It then oscillated downwards and dropped below $80,000 again, hitting a low of $79,986, with the market showing a surge and pullback trend.
March 14: Range-Bound Oscillation, New Trend Yet to Be Confirmed
On March 14, Bitcoin oscillated within the range of $80,000 to $85,000, gradually opening a new uptrend. As of writing, the price has risen to $81,850, but the market direction still requires further confirmation.
Summary
On March 14, the price stabilized and rebounded, but the overall trend remains unclear, with the market still in a range consolidation phase, requiring further observation of the breakout direction. Recently, the market has been highly volatile, but the support level below remains solid. Long-term investors should pay attention to opportunities for buying at lower levels while considering macro-market conditions and capital flow to assess the medium- and long-term trend. It is essential to monitor changes in market sentiment, especially the impact of external macro factors on Bitcoin's movement, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy, market liquidity, and institutional capital flows.
Bitcoin Price Trend (2025/03/10 - 2025/03/14)
2. Market Dynamics and Macro Background
Capital Flow:
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Whale Holdings and Exchange Flow:
Whales have acquired approximately 60,000 BTC over the past month, marking one of the most active accumulation phases in recent history, indicating strong demand from institutional and large-scale investors in the market.
At the same time, CryptoQuant community analyst Darkfost pointed out that whale sell-off activity on Binance is slowing down, with the whale ratio, measuring the inflow proportion of the top 10 exchanges, declining. This suggests that the sell-off pressure from whales is diminishing, and the amount of Bitcoin sold is decreasing. However, Bitcoin miners could become a new source of sell-off pressure. Analysts believe miners are experiencing a market condition similar to the recent Bitcoin difficulty adjustment, which usually precedes large-scale sell-offs by miners (miner capitulation), or may have further impacts on the market. -
Exchange Capital Inflows:
As of March 12, 2025, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.74 trillion, with a total trading volume of $137.92 billion, a 25.1% decrease from the previous trading day, showing that market trading activity has slowed down.
Technical Analysis:
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Key Support and Resistance:
Bitcoin’s price touched a long-term support trendline that has been maintained for 2 years and 4 months. The weekly chart shows a significant lower shadow, indicating strong buying interest at these levels, suggesting the potential for a bullish reversal or continued upward movement.
In addition, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes shared his market outlook on March 10, stating that Bitcoin may retest the $78,000 support level, and if it falls below that, the next key support would be at $75,000. He also pointed out that a large number of outstanding options (OI) contracts are concentrated in the $70,000 - $75,000 range, and if the price enters that range, it could trigger more intense market volatility.
Overall, Bitcoin has repeatedly found support near $80,000 this week, indicating that this level is a key psychological barrier for the market. On the upside, the $84,000 to $85,000 range has formed strong resistance, limiting the potential for upward movement. - Indicator Analysis:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is sloping downward on the daily chart, indicating that the potential momentum for Bitcoin’s price trend is negative.
MA (Moving Averages): Bitcoin's 50-day moving average (MA) is at $0.165, and the 200-day moving average is at $0.150, both of which are below the current price, indicating a bullish medium- to long-term trend.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD is showing red histogram bars below the neutral line, indicating that the potential momentum for Bitcoin’s price trend is negative.
Market Sentiment:
On March 11, Bitcoin’s price fell below $80,000 again within 24 hours, reaching a low of $76,000, and market panic spread. As of March 13, 2025, Bitcoin’s price decreased by 3% to $81,148, with market sentiment being sluggish, and centralized exchange trading volume dropping by 21%.
Recently, Bitcoin market sentiment has turned cautious. Technical indicators show an oversold condition, the derivatives market remains resilient, and ETF inflows are recovering. Macro-economic pressures and policy changes are affecting market trends. The U.S. government’s move to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve may drive long-term opportunities. In the short term, key support levels should be closely monitored, while long-term investors should focus on policy and institutional behavior.
Macro Background and Industry News:
- Macro Economy:
U.S. Economic Data: The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February increased by 2.8% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.9%, indicating a slowdown in inflation.
Federal Reserve Policy: The market expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in June, with potential rate cuts of 25 basis points three times during the year.
- Industry News:
U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve: U.S. President Trump signed an executive order to advance the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, incorporating Bitcoin into the national reserve framework.
EU Tariff Impact: Analysts suggest that retaliatory tariffs from the European Union could cause Bitcoin to pull back to $75,000.
Overall, from March 10, 2025, to March 14, 2025, Bitcoin’s price has been significantly influenced by capital flows, technical factors, market sentiment, industry news, and macro-economic background, showing notable volatility.
3. Hashrate Changes
From March 10, 2025, to March 14, 2025, the Bitcoin network hashrate experienced fluctuations, as detailed below:
On March 10, the Bitcoin network hashrate dropped from 827.66 EH/s to 782.83 EH/s, followed by a slight rebound to 846.22 EH/s. After a brief adjustment, the hashrate again dropped to 753.63 EH/s, and then quickly rebounded to 901.00 EH/s, showing significant volatility. On March 11, the computing power fluctuated between 850 EH/s and 900 EH/s, briefly breaking through 900 EH/s to a peak of 907.63 EH/s. However, this level could not be maintained, and the hashrate quickly dropped back to 753.88 EH/s, before entering a new upward channel. On March 12, the hashrate continued the upward trend from the previous day, first recovering to about 800 EH/s, then quickly rising to 918.26 EH/s. The computing power briefly stayed around 910 EH/s, then dropped to 834.06 EH/s, remaining relatively stable within this range. On March 13, the hashrate climbed to 923.34 EH/s, briefly dropping to 835.68 EH/s, and then rebounding to 879.06 EH/s before entering a downward trend. On March 14, the downward trend continued, with the hashrate dropping to 854.78 EH/s before continuing to decline, ultimately nearing 800 EH/s.
Overall, the hashrate exhibited significant fluctuations during this period, reflecting frequent changes in the network's computing power.
Bitcoin Network Hashrate Data
4. Mining Revenue
From March 10, 2025, to March 14, 2025, Bitcoin miners' earnings were influenced by multiple factors, including Bitcoin price fluctuations, mining difficulty adjustments, and market sentiment.
Bitcoin Network Difficulty Adjustment
According to CloverPool data, the Bitcoin mining difficulty was increased by 1.43% to 112.15T at block height 887,040 (Beijing time, March 9, 2025, 23:58:46), approaching its historical high (114.17). According to Hashrate Index data, the average hashrate over the past seven days was 834.27 EH/s.
The increase in mining difficulty means miners need to invest more computing power to obtain the same Bitcoin rewards, which could result in decreased earnings per unit of hashrate. However, as some high-cost miners may exit the market due to declining profits, the network hashrate may decrease, potentially lowering mining difficulty in future adjustments and providing some relief for remaining miners.
Bitcoin Price Trend
As of March 14, 2025, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated between $76,500 and $85,000. The decline in Bitcoin's price directly impacts miners' USD-denominated income, leading to a reduction in profit margins, which may expose miners with higher operational costs to the risk of losses.
Miner's Response Strategies
In the face of price volatility and profit pressure, some miners choose to accumulate Bitcoin in anticipation of selling it for higher profits when the price rises. For example, Bitcoin miners in the U.S. have opted to hoard cryptocurrency due to shrinking profit margins, as they face intensified resource competition.
Additionally, miners can maintain profitability by improving equipment efficiency, lowering electricity costs, and optimizing operations. It is also worth noting that long-term holders increased their Bitcoin holdings by 131,000 BTC over the past month, indicating confidence in Bitcoin's future value.
Overall, from March 10 to March 14, 2025, the decline in Bitcoin's price and the rise in mining difficulty had a negative impact on miners' earnings. However, miners can still maintain profitability by adjusting their strategies and optimizing their operations in the face of market fluctuations. In the future, market sentiment and macroeconomic factors will continue to influence Bitcoin's price trends, and miners should closely monitor market dynamics to develop effective response strategies.
5. Energy Costs and Mining Efficiency
According to CloverPool data, the Bitcoin mining difficulty was increased by 1.43% to 112.15T at block height 887,040 (Beijing time, March 9, 2025, 23:58:46), approaching its historical high (114.17T). This adjustment reflects the continued growth of Bitcoin network hashrate, with miners on the network investing more computing power to compete for more block rewards. As of the writing on March 14, Bitcoin's total network hashrate had reached approximately 829.35 EH/s, while the current mining difficulty stood at 112.15T. Based on current trends, it is expected that the Bitcoin mining difficulty will increase by about 1.07% to 113.34T during the next difficulty adjustment (approximately in 8 days).
According to the latest data from MacroMicro, the current total production cost of Bitcoin is approximately $84,690.49, with the Mining Cost-to-Price Ratio being 1.01. This means that the cost for miners to produce one Bitcoin is nearly equal to its market price, resulting in a relatively narrow profit margin for miners. This ratio reflects the operational pressure on miners, especially when Bitcoin prices are volatile, making their profitability more sensitive.
In this context, miners need to continuously improve mining efficiency and optimize energy usage to ensure profitability in the highly competitive environment. Looking ahead, the Bitcoin network's hashrate is expected to continue growing, and miners may need to rely more on advanced cooling technologies, solar energy, and other renewable energy sources to reduce their carbon footprint and energy costs, thus gaining a long-term competitive edge.
Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Data
6. Policy and Regulatory News
Bitcoin Reserve Legislation Progress in U.S. States
Texas:
The Texas Senate passed the SB-21 bill by a vote of 25 to 5, allowing the state government to invest in Bitcoin and establish a Bitcoin Reserve Advisory Committee to ensure transparency in the investments. In addition, the state legislature introduced HB 4258, which allows the state auditor to invest up to $250 million from the Economic Stabilization Fund into Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, while permitting local governments to invest up to $10 million in Bitcoin. This bill is expected to take effect on September 1, 2025.
Utah:
The Utah State Senate passed the Bitcoin bill but removed key provisions that initially aimed to establish a state-level Bitcoin reserve, leaving only provisions related to Bitcoin custody protection.
Senator Cynthia Lummis:
Reintroduced the "Bitcoin Bill": On March 11, Lummis reintroduced the Bitcoin Bill, which plans to purchase 1 million Bitcoin over five years to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Compared to the previous version, the new bill changes the plan to purchase 200,000 Bitcoin annually from "up to" to "must," and strengthens the provision that Bitcoin must not be sold during the holding period.
Stablecoin-related Bill Deliberation:
On March 13, as the chair of the Senate Banking Committee's Digital Assets Subcommittee, Lummis hosted the final deliberation of the GENIUS Act, proposed by Senator Hagerty. This bill aims to clearly define payment stablecoins, establish clear procedures for institutions seeking to issue stablecoins, and promote responsible innovation while protecting consumers.
Representative Nick Begich:
Representative Nick Begich announced plans to reintroduce the "2025 Bitcoin Bill" in the House, proposing that the U.S. acquire 1 million BTC and emphasizing individual self-custody rights.
Legislative Progress in Other States:
So far, 24 states have considered establishing digital asset reserves, viewing them as tools to combat inflation. However, due to Bitcoin's high volatility, five states—Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Pennsylvania—have rejected related proposals.
Democratic Pressure on U.S. Treasury to Halt Trump's Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Plan
On March 14, U.S. House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Democratic leader Gerald Connolly urged the U.S. Treasury to halt plans to create a strategic cryptocurrency reserve, following former President Donald Trump's pursuit of establishing a national Bitcoin reserve and personal cryptocurrency reserves.
On Thursday, the Virginia Democratic congressman wrote a letter to the Treasury, pointing out the "obvious conflict of interest" in Trump's push to establish reserves. Connolly stated that Trump did not consult Congress nor seek Congressional authorization to set up reserves. The letter stated, "Creating a strategic cryptocurrency reserve will come at the expense of American taxpayers, enriching the president and his closest allies. I urge you to stop all plans to establish strategic cryptocurrency reserves and request a briefing for staff of the Oversight and Government Reform Committee."
South Korean Financial Experts and Opposition Party Lawmakers Call for Bitcoin Reserve Consideration
On March 10, South Korean financial experts and opposition party politicians at a seminar hosted by the main opposition Democratic Party in the National Assembly urged South Korea to include Bitcoin in its national reserves and develop a won-backed stablecoin. According to the Korea Herald, the seminar analyzed potential countermeasures to the U.S. establishment of a Bitcoin-centered national reserve. The discussion took place just before President Trump's signing of an executive order to create Bitcoin and cryptocurrency reserves.
Kim Jong-seung, CEO of blockchain company xCrypton, said at the event on Wednesday, "South Korea needs to respond with clear policies." In addition to Bitcoin reserves, experts at the seminar stressed the importance of creating a won-backed stablecoin. Kim warned that if dollar-backed stablecoins dominate the digital economy, South Korea could lose "monetary sovereignty." He said, "We need to develop a model that connects dollar-backed stablecoins with won-backed stablecoins for trade transactions."
Kim Min-seok, head of the Democratic Party's Policy Preparation Committee, stated that if the party returns to power, it will reshape South Korea's cryptocurrency regulatory framework. Analyst Min Jung from Presto Research said, "South Korea is generally slower than most countries. We have just approved corporate accounts for cryptocurrencies, and Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are still not allowed. It seems like South Korea is just trying to catch up."
UK Treasury States "No Plans" to Introduce U.S.-Style Bitcoin Reserves
On March 10, market sources reported that the UK Treasury stated it has "no plans" to introduce U.S.-style Bitcoin reserves, citing Bitcoin's volatility as making it unsuitable as a reserve asset for the UK.
Nebraska Governor Signs Bitcoin ATM Regulation Bill
On March 13, Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen officially signed LB609 into law, regulating Bitcoin ATMs and other electronic transaction terminals to prevent fraud and protect consumer rights. The law requires Bitcoin ATM operators to clearly disclose all terms of use and provide prominent anti-fraud warnings to users. Additionally, users who report fraud to operators and law enforcement within 90 days will receive a full refund.
U.S. Treasury in Talks with Three Crypto Firms on Bitcoin Reserve Custody
On March 14, sources revealed that the U.S. Treasury met with executives from three crypto custody firms this week to discuss how to safeguard the national strategic Bitcoin reserve. Anchorage Digital was one of the firms involved in the discussions. Anchorage CEO Nathan McCauley stated that Treasury officials inquired in detail about best practices for Bitcoin national reserves and digital asset custody and explored how custody could impact stablecoins and market structure.
Congressional sources indicated that the Treasury is currently in the research phase and has not formed a clear stance but is actively consulting industry experts. The current preference is for a third-party institution to safeguard the government’s Bitcoin reserves, with the long-term goal being self-custody by the government. As for various seized digital assets under government control, third-party custody may still be required for the foreseeable future. The U.S. Treasury declined to comment on the matter.
7. Mining News
Cybersecurity Company Kaspersky: Hackers Ransom YouTube Bloggers to Promote Crypto Mining Trojan On March 12, cybersecurity company Kaspersky discovered that hackers were using copyright complaints to threaten YouTube content creators, forcing them to add a crypto mining Trojan, SilentCryptoMiner, in their video descriptions. This malware is based on XMRig and is used to mine cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, Ethereum Classic, Monero, and Ravencoin, and controls a botnet via the Bitcoin blockchain. The hackers’ main target was YouTubers who offered tutorials on installing the Windows Packet Divert driver. They first filed a fake copyright complaint against the video, then contacted the creator, claiming to be the developer of the driver, and demanded that they add the malicious link. A YouTuber with 60,000 followers was known to have been victimized, leading to over 40,000 downloads of the infected file. Kaspersky estimates that at least 2,000 devices have been infected. Kaspersky security researcher Leonid Bezvershenko warned that hackers are exploiting the trust between YouTubers and their audiences, and this threat may spread to platforms like Telegram. He advised users not to trust tutorials asking to disable antivirus software and to verify the source before downloading any files to prevent infection by crypto mining Trojans.
A Small-Scale Miner Successfully Mines a Bitcoin Block with 3.3TH Hashrate, Less Than One in a Million Chance On March 12, according to ckpool developer Dr -ck, a miner successfully mined Bitcoin block 887212 (block hash: 000000000000000000006414aea39be567cf1d5ff6cbf2d77254fe7c714b0d81) with a hashrate of only 3.3TH, using a 480GH Bitaxe mining machine on solo.ckpool.org. The miner’s address is bc1qaxccz85rx6ywy2xw6ugtm6u37mvew6qqn7lgtd. The theoretical probability of discovering a block daily with this hashrate is less than one in a million, and typically, it would take 3,500 years to find a block.
Delaware Court Rules Bitcoin Mining Hosting Provider Cannot Block Tenant Access to Their Miners On March 14, a Delaware court temporarily approved a temporary restraining order from a Pennsylvania Bitcoin mining company against its hosting provider, which had blocked access to its miners due to a payment dispute. The order prohibits the hosting service provider from blocking access or taking control of the 21,000 mining machines on the miner’s property. Vice Chancellor Morgan Zurn approved the temporary restraining order from Bitcoin miner Consensus Colocation and its system owner, Stone Ridge Ventures, against Mawson Hosting, which provides hosting and colocation services for Bitcoin miners. The companies had disagreements over alleged unpaid fees, contract terms, and Consensus’s relocation plans, which allegedly led Mawson to block the miners’ access to the site. The companies also claimed that since Mawson blocked Consensus from entering the premises on February 28, Mawson had been operating the mining machines for its own benefit. However, Mawson claimed that, under its agreement with Consensus, it had the right to operate the mining machines and had priority purchasing rights for its relocation plan.
8. Bitcoin News
Global Corporate and National Bitcoin Holdings Dynamics (This Week's Statistics)
- Australia Monochrome: As of March 7, Monochrome Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBTC) holdings dropped to 303 BTC, a decrease of 17 BTC from the previous day, with a holding value of approximately $42.534 million.
- Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy): The market value of Bitcoin holdings has dropped below $40 billion. The company currently holds 499,096 BTC, worth approximately $39.97 billion based on the current price of $79,998.5.
- El Salvador: The country increased its Bitcoin holdings by 6 BTC in the past two days, with an average price of $82,308. The total holdings have reached 6,112.18 BTC, valued at $491.6 million. Over the past 30 days, they have accumulated an additional 41 BTC, continuing to build BTC reserves despite pressure from the IMF.
- StarkWare: Announced the establishment of a “strategic Bitcoin reserve” and plans to hold more BTC in the future, although specific holdings data was not disclosed. The company is valued at $8 billion and has invested significant resources in Bitcoin research in recent years.
- Lead Benefit (Ming Cheng Group): The Hong Kong subsidiary purchased 333 BTC for $27 million on February 28, with an average price of $81,555. Previously, on January 9, the company purchased 500 BTC, for a total investment of $47 million.
- Metaplanet: Plans to issue ¥2 billion (approximately $13.506 million) in non-interest bearing ordinary bonds to purchase Bitcoin. Additionally, the company acquired 162 BTC, increasing its total holdings to 3,050 BTC, with a total value of ¥38.452 billion.
- Ark Invest: Increased its Bitcoin holdings by $82.6 million (Source: BITCOINLFG, March 13).
Grayscale Research Director: Bitcoin's Further Appreciation Does Not Rely on U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
On March 10, it was reported that U.S. President Trump had signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve and a separate digital asset reserve. In response, Grayscale Investments' research director Zach Pandl stated that Bitcoin does not need the U.S. strategic reserve to further appreciate this year. He expects Bitcoin’s price to rise as adoption increases, and he believes Bitcoin will begin to serve as a store of value this year, especially as concerns grow that Trump’s tariff policies may lead to rising inflation once again.
Opinion: USD Crash Fuels Bitcoin Bull Market, but Other Indicators are Worrying
On March 10, RealVision crypto analyst Jamie Coutts stated that a weakening USD could drive Bitcoin’s strength, but there are two key indicators that may raise concerns in the short term. Despite the USD crash, his outlook has become bullish, but two indicators are still raising alarms: U.S. Treasury volatility (MOVE index) and corporate bond spreads.
Coutts described Bitcoin as a game between national central banks. Despite these concerning indicators, the overall outlook remains cautiously bullish. The MOVE index measures expected volatility in the U.S. Treasury market. Coutts noted that while the MOVE index remains stable, it is trending upward. Rising Treasury volatility may tighten liquidity further, while the corporate bond spread has been widening for three consecutive weeks. A significant reversal in corporate bond spreads typically coincides with Bitcoin's price peak. Coutts concluded that overall, these indicators pose a negative signal for Bitcoin. However, the depreciation of the dollar—which marks one of the largest monthly declines in the past 12 years—remains the primary driving force in his framework.
Santiment: Large Holders Have Reaccumulated Nearly 5,000 BTC Over the Past Week
On March 10, Santiment reported that wallets holding more than 10 BTC had experienced several key turning points over the past six months. A slight sell-off between mid-February and early March exacerbated the recent decline in the crypto market, but since March 3, these large wallets have reaccumulated nearly 5,000 BTC, while retail investor sentiment has been in panic.
The data chart shows several key moments: Large holders began accumulating early in the bull market on October 12 last year; paused accumulation during the holiday dip on December 26; resumed accumulation on January 12, a week before Trump’s inauguration (when Bitcoin reached a historical high of $109,000); started selling off on February 19; and began accumulating again on March 3, when retail sentiment was most pessimistic.
Santiment noted that while the price has yet to react to the actions of large holders, if these key stakeholders continue to accumulate, the market performance in the second half of March may outperform the "bloodbath" that followed Bitcoin's historic highs over the past seven weeks.
Analysis: Monte Carlo Model Predicts Bitcoin Price Will Reach $713,000 Peak in 6 Months
On March 10, Cointelegraph reported that despite the cryptocurrency fear and greed index showing "extreme fear" on March 10, a Bitcoin market simulation still predicts an upward trend for the second half of 2025. Cryptocurrency researcher Mark Quant used a Monte Carlo simulation to analyze Bitcoin’s price and provide a six-month forecast for the cryptocurrency asset. The Monte Carlo model is a computational method that simulates price predictions and evaluates risk through random sampling. It can generate multiple potential scenarios based on volatility, market trends, and other variable factors. Based on an initial price of $82,655, the study estimates that Bitcoin's average final price by the end of September 2025 will be $258,445. However, from a broader perspective, Bitcoin's price is expected to fluctuate between $51,430 (5th percentile return) and $713,000 (95th percentile return).
It is important to note that the Monte Carlo model largely depends on the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model, which assumes that asset values follow a random path with constant drift parameters. In this analysis, Bitcoin’s inherent volatility was incorporated into the model, capturing long-term historical performance and patterns while adapting to future changes. Essentially, the Monte Carlo analysis is like a “dice roll” with uncertainty. Last week, Quant also highlighted the correlation between total cryptocurrency market capitalization and global liquidity indexes, suggesting that total market cap could exceed $4 trillion in Q2 2025.
Nansen: Bitcoin’s Drop to $70K Range Part of Bull Market "Macro Adjustment"
On March 12, Nansen's chief research analyst Aurelie Barthere stated that most cryptocurrencies have broken through key support levels, making it difficult to estimate the next key price level. For Bitcoin, the next level could be between $71,000 and $72,000, which was the upper range before the Trump election. Despite a decline in investor sentiment, cryptocurrencies and global markets are still in the "macro adjustment" phase of a bull market, with both stocks and cryptocurrencies having priced in and realized their gains. The Federal Reserve has not taken any actions.
Standard Chartered Analyst: Bitcoin's Recent Decline Related to Weak Risk Assets, Long-Term Bullish to $200K
On March 12, Standard Chartered’s digital asset research head Geoff Kendrick stated that Bitcoin’s recent price fluctuations are aligned with the performance of risk assets like the "Seven Giants" of U.S. stocks, rather than any issues specific to cryptocurrency itself. He pointed out that Bitcoin’s decline has been largely driven by overall market sentiment, and future rebounds may rely on two catalysts: a general recovery in risk assets or positive news about Bitcoin (such as sovereign purchases by the U.S. or other countries). If the Federal Reserve quickly shifts to a rate cut (e.g., increasing the probability of a May rate cut from 50% to 75%), it may trigger a Bitcoin rebound. However, if the downtrend continues, Bitcoin may fall below $76,500 and test the $69,000 support level.
Despite short-term pressure, Kendrick remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, forecasting a rise to $200,000 by the end of 2025. He emphasized that the current market volatility increases the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts, further solidifying his long-term bullish view. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariff policies and Federal Reserve rate decisions will continue to affect market sentiment and introduce uncertainty into Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Ohio Governor Candidate Vivek: Bitcoin is a More Suitable Asset to Fill National Strategic Reserves
On March 12, Ohio gubernatorial candidate and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy stated at the "Bitcoin For America" summit that the returns from holding Bitcoin for over ten years have become the new high-risk benchmark return. He believes the world is returning to an "era of capital scarcity," in contrast to the mass money printing by the Federal Reserve over the past 15 years.
Ramaswamy explained that institutional investors will once again need to consider the "opportunity cost of capital" and determine benchmark returns for low-risk and high-risk investments. He pointed out that the benchmark for low-risk investments is the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, while the benchmark for high-risk investments is Bitcoin’s 10 to 15-year return.
"Bitcoin and what it represents, not just as a financial asset but as a symbol of America's greatness, is the most appropriate asset to fill our nation’s strategic reserves," Ramaswamy stated.
Analyst: Bitcoin is Close to Bottoming Out, Expected to Rebound in Q2
On March 12, Joel Kruger of LMAX Digital stated that the current weakness in the cryptocurrency market is mainly due to a sell-off effect following news releases and technical overdue adjustments, rather than other factors. However, there are still more factors at play due to uncertainty about the U.S. economic outlook, which has triggered risk-off sentiment in the market.
Despite this, Kruger believes that Bitcoin is close to bottoming out and expects a rebound in Q2. Between the previous resistance levels of $69,000 and $74,000, Bitcoin "should receive strong support." Kruger had previously mentioned that Bitcoin’s "store of value" narrative might help it break free from the misleading correlation with traditional risk assets.
Ark Invest: Long-Term Bitcoin Outlook Remains Positive, Current Market Sentiment Too Pessimistic
On March 12, despite a significant market drop in March, Cathie Wood’s investment firm Ark Invest remains optimistic about Bitcoin. Ark Invest stated in a report on Tuesday that they maintain a positive long-term outlook for Bitcoin, believing that policy changes and technological breakthroughs in fields like artificial intelligence and robotics will reignite spending and increase productivity.
Ark Invest also pointed out that regulatory relaxation and tax cuts are potential major drivers for Bitcoin’s recovery from the current market turmoil. The market has become overly pessimistic about the current macroeconomic and geopolitical sentiment.
