1. Bitcoin Market
Bitcoin Price Trends (2025/10/25–2025/10/31)
Sideways Consolidation Phase (October 25–26)
On October 25, Bitcoin gradually climbed from around $110,000 to approximately $112,000. On October 26, the price consolidated near $111,600, entering a phase of sideways accumulation.
Causes of the trend:
1.Improved Macroeconomic Expectations
The market widely anticipated that the Federal Reserve would soon cut interest rates, reducing the opportunity cost of holding risk assets. At the same time, easing U.S.–China trade tensions and lower tariff risks supported risk sentiment across assets, including Bitcoin.
2.Structural Technical Breakout
Bitcoin broke above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA50), signaling a shift from sideways consolidation to a short-term uptrend. The breakout above the key resistance range of $112,000–$114,000 triggered leveraged short liquidations, which typically accelerate upward momentum.
Volatile Ascent Phase (October 26–27)
On the evening of October 26, Bitcoin broke through the $112,000 resistance level and surged close to $114,000. The rally continued on October 27, pushing the price near $116,000.
Causes of the trend:
1.Short Squeeze-Driven Breakout
According to CoinGlass data, approximately $319 million in short positions were liquidated on October 26—the highest in nearly three weeks. The breakout above resistance triggered stop-losses and forced liquidations, forming a “short squeeze” that passively drove prices higher. A second wave of liquidations occurred after the $114,000 breakout on October 27, further accelerating the uptrend.
2.Positive Macro and Geopolitical Developments
Strengthened expectations for Fed rate cuts: The market anticipated dovish signals or a rate cut at the October 29 FOMC meeting, improving liquidity outlooks.
Improved U.S.–China relations: Constructive trade discussions between U.S. and Chinese representatives in Kuala Lumpur on October 26 eased market concerns about trade tensions.
Both developments bolstered global risk appetite and positioned Bitcoin as a key allocation target.
3.Technical Breakout and Sentiment Shift
The price reclaiming the SMA50 triggered trend-following inflows from both institutional and retail traders. The Fear & Greed Index rose from “Neutral” to “Greed,” signaling growing investor confidence and a bullish market tone.
Extended Volatility and Correction Phase (October 28–31)
On October 28, Bitcoin retraced toward $114,000, briefly rebounded to $116,000, and then entered a downward trend. The price fell to around $113,000 on October 29, then continued declining through October 30, closing near $108,000. On October 31, Bitcoin broke below $108,000, hitting the weekly low of $106,398.
Causes of the trend:
1.Weakening Monetary Easing Expectations
On October 30, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate cut but signaled uncertainty about further easing. The mixed “dovish yet cautious” tone cooled market sentiment, with investors interpreting the move as “already priced in.” As a result, risk assets, including Bitcoin, came under pressure.
2.Profit-Taking After Positive Catalysts
Following the October 26–27 rally, profit-taking emerged as prices approached $116,000, with leveraged long positions partially unwound. The “sell-the-news” effect was evident as positive developments prompted selling rather than further buying.
3.Cautious Liquidity and Capital Structure
Although institutional inflows were observed, market consensus for large-scale accumulation remained weak. Data showed that on October 30, over $1.1 billion in long positions were liquidated, intensifying downward pressure.
Wide-Range Volatility Phase (October 31)
On October 31, Bitcoin rebounded from the weekly low of $106,398 to as high as $109,931 before facing resistance near $110,000 and retreating to $108,677. At the time of writing, BTC was trading around $108,923.
Causes of the trend:
1.Technical Factors
The rebound from $106,398 coincided with short-term bullish support, attracting dip-buying interest. Resistance around $110,000 acted as both a psychological and technical ceiling, with multiple failed breakout attempts. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages converged, creating mixed short-term signals and a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
2.Capital Flow Dynamics
The deleveraging process was not yet complete, and short-term capital continued to enter and exit at lower price ranges, resulting in wide-range fluctuations. Partial short covering during rebounds pushed prices quickly toward $109,931, but persistent selling pressure limited further upside.
Summary
Over the past week (October 25–31, 2025), Bitcoin exhibited a five-phase market rhythm ofsideways consolidation → strong breakout → short squeeze rally → post-news correction → wide-range volatility. The price mainly fluctuated between$106,398 and $116,000, showing substantial amplitude and reflecting short-term instability and intensified capital rotation.
2. Market Dynamics and Macroeconomic Background
Capital Flows
1. ETF Fund Flows
Bitcoin ETF capital movements this week were as follows:
October 27: +$149.3 million
October 28: +$202.4 million
October 29: -$470.7 million
October 30: -$488.4 million
ETF Inflow/Outflow Data Chart
Data indicates that the first two days of the week recorded net inflows, followed by significant net outflows over the subsequent two days, reflecting heightened short-term capital volatility. The large outflows during the latter half of the week were closely tied to macroeconomic policy shifts—on October 29, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that “a December rate cut is not guaranteed,” which weakened market expectations for further easing. This triggered short-term pressure on risk assets and led institutional investors to reduce ETF exposure.
Overall, while ETF inflows and outflows fluctuated sharply in the short term, combined on-chain and exchange flow data suggest that long-term institutional positions remain stable, indicating the market is still in a “reduced selling pressure + gradual accumulation” phase.
2. On-Chain Capital Flows
Rising Supply of Profitable Coins:
According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel, the 30-day change in the proportion of Bitcoin supply in profit has improved from –12% to –6%, showing a clear reduction in selling pressure and suggesting increased opportunities for buying the dip. Although the share of profitable coins remains below the level from a month ago, the negative momentum has significantly narrowed.
Exchange Flow Trends:
Between October 25 and October 31, most major exchanges recorded net Bitcoin outflows rather than inflows (for example, Binance’s 30-day SMA remained negative). This trend indicates that holders are increasingly moving assets off exchanges instead of selling, reflecting stronger accumulation intent and a preference for long-term holding.
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3.Exchange and Market Fund Flows
Spot trading activity: According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin spot trading volume reached $300 billion in October, with Binance accounting for 58%. After the market pullback, traders shifted from risk markets to the spot market, indicating that there is still active buying and selling demand in the market.
Options expiration events: This Friday (Beijing time 10/29 16:00), 127,000 BTC will expire for settlement, with a notional value of $14.42 billion, a max pain point of $114,000, and a put/call ratio of 0.76. Ethereum options expiring have a notional value of $2.56 billion, a max pain point of $4,100, and a put/call ratio of 0.7. Such large expiration events usually have a certain impact on short-term fund flows and price volatility.
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4.Credit and Institutional Fund Flows
BTC lending market recovery: According to Ledn, loan issuance this year has exceeded $1 billion, with $392 million in BTC-collateralized loans issued in Q3, generating $100 million in annual recurring revenue. As of the end of September, Ledn’s loan portfolio reached $836.2 million, with an average LTV of 42.7%, and it published proof of reserves. The data shows that holders are obtaining liquidity through BTC collateral, indicating that market liquidity demand still exists and the credit market is gradually recovering.
Technical Indicator Analysis
1.Relative Strength Index (RSI 14)
According to Bitbo data, as of October 31, 2025, Bitcoin’s 14-day RSI is 50.59. The RSI is in the neutral zone (around 50), showing neither obvious overbought conditions (>70) nor oversold conditions (<30), indicating that the current market sees a relatively balanced force between bulls and bears.
From recent trends, the RSI has been oscillating around 50, showing that Bitcoin’s short-term trend lacks a clear direction and investor sentiment is leaning toward a wait-and-see approach. If the RSI can steadily break above 60, it may signal an increase in short-term upward momentum; conversely, a drop below 45 would increase short-term downside risk.
Bitcoin 14-day RSI Data Image
2.Moving Average (MA) Analysis
- MA5 (5-day MA): $111,586
- MA20 (20-day MA): $114,366
- MA50 (50-day MA): $115,053
- MA100 (100-day MA): $115,692
- Current price: $109,244
MA5, MA20, MA50, MA100, M200 Data Image
The current price is below all short- and mid-term moving averages, indicating that Bitcoin is under short-term downward pressure.
The arrangement of MA5 < MA20 < MA50 < MA100 represents a bearish alignment, showing a clear short-term downtrend with insufficient short-term bullish momentum.
If the price can break above MA20 at around $114,366, it may open up space for a short-term rebound, potentially testing key levels at MA50 and MA100.
Considering long-term moving averages, if Bitcoin maintains above MA100, there is still medium-term support; however, the current price deviation is significant, so attention should be paid to risks of technical rebounds or pressure-induced pullbacks.
3.Key Support and Resistance Levels
Support levels: In the short term, Bitcoin’s key support zone is mainly between $106,000 and $108,000.
Resistance levels: Short-term resistance is mainly around $109,000, with further resistance at $112,000, $114,000, and $116,000. Breaking these levels could bring a new round of upward momentum.
The current price is near short-term resistance, and the market may face short-term consolidation or slight pullback.
Market Sentiment Analysis
As of October 24, the Fear & Greed Index stood at 31 points, falling within the “Fear” range, indicating that overall market sentiment remains cautious and slightly bearish.
Reviewing this week (October 25–October 30), the daily Fear & Greed Index values were as follows: 34 (Fear), 36 (Fear), 42 (Lower Neutral), 42 (Lower Neutral), 39 (Fear), and 34 (Fear). The overall range fluctuated between 34–42 points, showing continued low-level consolidation and a lack of clear optimism in the market.
From an analytical perspective, fear sentiment dominates. Combining technical indicators and sentiment indices, the market remains in a wait-and-see and volatile phase. In the short term, traders should focus on key support and resistance levels and avoid chasing highs.
Fear & Greed Index Data Image
Macroeconomic Background
1.Federal Reserve (Fed) Meeting on October 28–29
At the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on October 28–29, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point cut to its target range for the federal funds rate, lowering it to 3.75%–4.00%. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized during the press conference that while this rate cut was widely expected, the next potential cut (such as at the December meeting) is by no means “a foregone conclusion.”
In addition, the meeting minutes and statement indicated that the Federal Reserve plans to end its balance sheet reduction program (Quantitative Tightening, QT) starting December 1, meaning it will stop further reductions in its securities holdings.
In the markets, following the announcement, the U.S. Dollar Index rebounded, bond yields—particularly medium-term ones—moved higher, and Bitcoin, despite briefly rallying ahead of the rate cut news, subsequently retraced.
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2.Geopolitical Relations Fluctuations
Around October 25, senior officials from both sides held talks in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. There were signs that the U.S. and China reached a “framework agreement” on issues such as tariffs, rare earth export controls, agricultural product purchases, and control over digital platforms (such as TikTok). According to U.S. Treasury officials, China agreed to delay the implementation of its new rare earth export licensing system, while the U.S. suspended its threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. This development temporarily boosted market risk appetite.
Subsequently, on October 30, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met in Busan, South Korea, announcing the establishment of a substantive cooperation framework: the U.S. would reduce its average tariffs from approximately 57% to 47%, China would resume purchases of U.S. soybeans and postpone the enforcement of rare earth export restrictions, and both sides pledged cooperation in combating the inflow of fentanyl precursor chemicals. Although these results did not constitute a comprehensive trade agreement, they significantly reduced the risk of a “full-scale trade war escalation.”
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3.Mining Industry Dynamics
Hashrate Changes
Over the past seven days, Bitcoin network hashrate has shown fluctuations, remaining within the range of 1,032.58 EH/s to 1,281.76 EH/s this week — a relatively high level.
From a trend perspective, although the overall network hashrate remains high, its volatility has widened, reflecting flexible scheduling by some large-scale mining farms amid fluctuations in electricity prices and operating costs. Recently, as temperatures have dropped and power supply-demand conditions have stabilized in parts of North America, some mining companies have brought more hashrate back online. Meanwhile, some small and medium-sized miners have temporarily shut down high-power equipment due to rising energy costs and Bitcoin’s sideways price movement, resulting in short-term hashrate fluctuations across the network.
Weekly Bitcoin Network Hashrate Data
As of October 31, the total network hashrate reached 1.14 ZH/s, with a mining difficulty of 155.97 T. The next difficulty adjustment is expected to occur on November 12, with an estimated decrease of about 0.52%, bringing the adjusted difficulty to approximately 155.16 T. The current difficulty level of 155.97 T remains one of the highest in the past three months. Since early August, apart from the first half of October, mining difficulty has shown a steady upward trend, reflecting the continuous deployment of new-generation high-performance mining machines and the expansion of network hashrate. The next slight downward adjustment is expected to reflect a temporary withdrawal of some hashrate under high difficulty and energy cost pressure.
Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Data
Miner Revenue
According to YCharts data, this week the average daily total revenue of Bitcoin miners (including block rewards and transaction fees) fluctuated between$46.37 million and $59.56 million.
- October 25: $58.06 million
- October 26: $52.69 million
- October 27: $55.38 million
- October 28: $59.56 million
- October 29: $46.37 million
Overall, this week’s miner revenue remained roughly the same as the previous period, with the mining industry’s overall profitability maintaining a stable level.
4.Policy and Regulatory News
Bank of Ghana: Plans to Implement Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Regulations by the End of 2025
On October 25, according to market sources, the Bank of Ghana announced plans to establish regulations related to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies by the end of 2025, making Ghana the 9th African country to adopt digital asset legislation.
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South Korean Parliament Proposes Bill to Include Stablecoins under Foreign Exchange Transactions Law for the First Time
On October 28, according to Yonhap News Agency, South Korean People Power Party lawmaker Park Sung-hoon proposed a bill to amend the Foreign Exchange Transactions Act, bringing stablecoins within the scope of legally recognized means of payment.
The bill aims to revise Article 3, Paragraph 1, “Definitions” section, placing stablecoins alongside government-issued fiat currency, banknotes, and coins as recognized payment instruments. Lawmaker Park stated that although stablecoins pegged to fiat currency are recognized as a potential new payment method, their nature differs from existing fiat currency, and they are not currently recognized as a payment method under the Foreign Exchange Transactions Act. This regulatory gap could facilitate illegal foreign exchange transactions and tax evasion via stablecoins. The Bank of Korea has previously expressed similar concerns, noting that U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins might be used for cross-border current and capital account transactions without the reporting procedures required under the Act, warning that the proliferation of stablecoins could make it easier to circumvent foreign exchange regulations. The South Korean Ministry of Strategy and Finance has expressed support for the bill and is coordinating with relevant authorities, including the Financial Services Commission and the central bank, on specific regulatory measures.
Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) Urges Government to Treat Bitcoin as a Strategic Asset
On October 29, according to Cointelegraph, Germany’s main opposition party—the Alternative for Germany (AfD)—submitted a formal motion to the Bundestag opposing excessive regulation of Bitcoin. The motion, submitted on October 23, asserts that Bitcoin is fundamentally different from other crypto assets and should not be included under the European unified crypto asset regulatory framework (MiCA).
The AfD noted in the motion that current tax treatment of Bitcoin is generally positive, but legal uncertainties remain, hindering long-term private investment. The party also called on German legislators to consider Bitcoin as a national reserve strategic asset, advocating to maintain the current 12-month tax-free holding period, keep Bitcoin exempt from VAT, and ensure individual self-custody rights.
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5.Bitcoin News
Global Corporate and National Bitcoin Holdings (This Week’s Statistics)
1.El Salvador
On October 26, it was reported that El Salvador acquired 8 BTC over the past 7 days, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 6,361.18 BTC, with a total value of approximately $710 million.
2.Prenetics (U.S. Listed Company)
On October 25, Prenetics launched a public offering of Class A common shares and warrants for the strategic acquisition of Bitcoin, holding 272 BTC as of October 24.
On October 28, Prenetics completed an oversubscribed financing of $48 million, planning to purchase 1 BTC daily, targeting $1 billion in assets within five years.
3.B HODL (U.K. Listed Company)
On October 26, B HODL announced an acquisition of 6 BTC, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 148 BTC.
4.Bitplanet (Korean Listed Company)
On October 27, Bitplanet launched a daily Bitcoin acquisition plan, purchasing 93 BTC last week, with a future target of establishing a 10,000 BTC treasury.
On October 29, the company spent $1.09 million to acquire 9 BTC, raising total holdings to 110.67 BTC.
On October 30, an additional 9 BTC was purchased, bringing total holdings to 119.67 BTC.
5.American Bitcoin Corp. (NASDAQ: ABTC)
On October 27, American Bitcoin acquired 1,414 BTC, bringing total holdings to approximately 3,865 BTC, sourced from mining and strategic purchases.
6.OranjeBTC (Brazilian Listed Company)
On October 27, OranjeBTC spent approximately $774,000 to acquire 7 BTC, bringing total holdings to 3,708 BTC.
7.Prenetics (U.S. Listed Company)
On October 27, Prenetics completed $46.8 million in oversubscribed equity financing for global expansion of its health brand IM8 and to accelerate its Bitcoin treasury strategy, planning to purchase 1 BTC daily, with a five-year target of $1 billion in revenue and Bitcoin holdings.
8.Strategy (i.e., MicroStrategy)
On October 27, Strategy spent approximately $43.4 million to acquire 390 BTC last week, bringing total holdings to 640,808 BTC.
9.French Parliament (UDR Party Proposal)
On October 28, the French Parliament proposed establishing a national strategic Bitcoin reserve program, aiming to hold approximately 420,000 BTC (about 2% of total Bitcoin supply) over 7–8 years.
10.Hyperscale Data (NYSE Listed)
On October 28, Hyperscale Data announced an expansion of its Bitcoin treasury to $68.8 million, with its subsidiaries currently holding approximately 194.5 BTC and planning further acquisitions.
11.Strive (BTC Treasury Company)
On October 28, Strive acquired 72 BTC, bringing total holdings to 5,958 BTC.
12.ZOOZ (NASDAQ Listed Company)
On October 28, ZOOZ spent $10 million to acquire 94 BTC, raising total Bitcoin holdings to 1,036 BTC.
13.Universal Digital (Canadian Listed Company)
On October 28, Universal Digital announced plans to raise $50 million through convertible bond issuance for further Bitcoin acquisitions, with the acquisition plan currently underway.
14.Vanadi Coffee (Spanish Listed Company)
On October 29, Vanadi Coffee acquired 2 BTC, bringing total holdings to 119 BTC.
15.Coinbase (U.S. Exchange)
On October 31, Coinbase reported Q3 net income of $433 million and total revenue of $1.9 billion. During the quarter, it acquired approximately $299 million in Bitcoin, currently holding 14,548 BTC (valued at approximately $1.6 billion).
Tom Lee: Believes There Will Be Another Rally Before Year-End, Bitcoin and Ethereum Turning Technically Positive
On October 25, Tom Lee stated in an interview with CNBC: “The crypto market has experienced a large-scale deleveraging event, partly caused by tariffs and trade frictions. This is the most severe liquidation event in the crypto industry over the past five years. The chain reactions following the event are still ongoing, and pessimism remains pervasive two weeks later. However, I believe these phenomena are about to end, as contract positions for both Bitcoin and Ethereum are at historically low levels. At the same time, technical indicators for both are turning positive, so I also believe that cryptocurrencies will see another rally before year-end. Recently, JPMorgan also indicated that crypto may be accepted as collateral in the future, which is very supportive for market confidence.”
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ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Indicates Bitcoin Cycle May Extend Beyond Historical Levels
On October 26, it was reported that the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI has historically been highly correlated with major peaks in the Bitcoin market cycle. If this pattern reoccurs, it could indicate that the current Bitcoin cycle will be longer than previous ones.
The correlation between ISM PMI and Bitcoin (BTC) price ($111,582) was initially popularized by Raoul Pal of Real Vision and later recognized by macro-focused crypto analysts.
Analyst Colin Talks Crypto noted: “The peaks of the past three Bitcoin cycles have generally aligned with this monthly volatility index.” He mentioned repeated overlaps between Bitcoin market highs and PMI cyclical peaks.
If this relationship holds, Colin added, “it would suggest that the duration of the Bitcoin cycle could be significantly longer than the historical average.”
Standard Chartered: If This Week Goes Smoothly, Bitcoin May Never Fall Below $100,000 Again
On October 27, The Block reported that Standard Chartered stated, “If this week goes smoothly,” Bitcoin may never fall below $100,000 again. Analyst Geoffrey Kendrick noted that the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio has risen slightly above previous levels; this ratio compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization with gold’s market capitalization and rises as Bitcoin’s market cap grows.
Another key signal of renewed market strength is new inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Even if only half of the funds return to Bitcoin ETFs from Monday to Wednesday this week, it would be a strong signal of renewed market sentiment. In recent weeks, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have lagged behind gold ETFs, “requiring some catching up.”
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Kyrgyzstan Announces Banks and Financial Institutions Can Custody Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies
On October 27, market sources reported that Kyrgyzstan announced banks and financial institutions are allowed to custody Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
“Rich Dad Poor Dad” Author: Currently Holds Millions in BTC, Predicts Price Will Double to $200,000 This Year
On October 29, Robert Kiyosaki, author ofRich Dad Poor Dad, shared his views on Bitcoin via social media. Kiyosaki stated that he currently holds millions of dollars in BTC and predicts BTC’s price will double this year, potentially reaching a high of $200,000.
Kiyosaki said, “When his friends look at their accounts, they only focus on tens of thousands in losses while ignoring millions in gains. He believes this psychological difference is the key distinction between the rich and the poor or middle class, calling it emotional intelligence (EQ). The poor and middle class are poor because their fear of failure outweighs their desire for success; EQ is more important than IQ in the world of money. Successful wealthy people know how to respect and rationally control the emotions of ‘fear’ and ‘greed.’”
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Michael Saylor: Bitcoin Clearly Positioned as Digital Gold, Price Expected to Continue Rising
On October 29, Michael Saylor, co-founder of MicroStrategy, revealed in a recent interview that Bitcoin is clearly positioned as digital gold, serving as a store of value. He mentioned that since the U.S. government approved a Bitcoin ETF last year, market consensus on Bitcoin as digital gold has gradually formed, and the crypto summit in March this year further reinforced this view.
He also pointed out that gold-backed credit once dominated the Western monetary system, and as digital capital, Bitcoin’s associated digital credit tools are rapidly developing. Additionally, he highlighted the fast growth in the digital finance sector over the past year, including the tokenization of currencies, stocks, bonds, and other real-world assets, which has provided significant momentum for proof-of-stake networks like Ethereum.
He emphasized that institutional adoption of Bitcoin is a key factor for the industry’s future development. Recently, major banks including JPMorgan, Citibank, and Wells Fargo have adjusted their crypto policies and begun accepting Bitcoin and Ethereum as collateral, marking a significant shift in traditional financial institutions’ attitudes toward crypto assets.
Michael Saylor: Predicts BTC to Reach $150,000 by Year-End, $1 Million Target in 4–8 Years
On October 29, according to Bitcoin Magazine, Strategy founder Michael Saylor shared his latest Bitcoin price forecast in an interview with CNBC, predicting $150,000 by year-end and a 4–8 year target of $1 million.
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Arthur Hayes Comments on Japanese Economic Policy, Predicts Bitcoin Will Reach ¥200 Million (~$1.3 Million)
On October 30, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated: The Bank of Japan issued a key statement, “Given the increasing uncertainty in domestic political conditions and the global economic weakness indicated by the Fed’s continued rate cuts, we believe it is best to maintain current policies in order to further push inflation (without specifying its measurement) toward our 2% target.” In other words, Bitcoin’s price is expected to reach ¥200 million (approximately $1.3 million).
