1. Bitcoin Market

Bitcoin Price Trend Picture

Bitcoin Price Trend (2025/09/13–2025/09/19)

Over the past week, Bitcoin moved in a pattern of “sideways consolidation → dip and recovery → post-Fed breakout attempt.” The core drivers were shifting Federal Reserve expectations and the actual 25 bp rate cut on Sep 18, plus mixed ETF flow headlines and improving risk sentiment. The main trading range sat roughly between 114,400 USD and 117,910 USD for the period. Key moments occurred on Sep 16 when price undercut to 114,801 USD intraday before recovering, and on Sep 18 when price rallied to a weekly high near 117,910 USD after the Fed’s cut.

Sideways Phase (September 13–September 15)

• Sep 13: high 116,292.4 USD, low 115,207.3 USD. Close 115,924.9 USD.
• Sep 14: high 116,165.6 USD, low 115,158.3 USD. Close 115,314.6 USD.
• Sep 15: high 116,723.2 USD, low 114,412.2 USD. Close 115,362.1 USD.

On Sep 13, price traded tightly and held near the mid-$115,000s for most of the session, with an intraday span of roughly $115,207 to $116,292 before settling near $115,925. On Sep 14, the range compressed again around the $115,000–$116,000 band, with dips toward $115,158 getting bought and bounces capped near $116,166. On Sep 15, the market briefly undercut the prior band to about $114,412 but snapped back toward $116,723 at the top of the day’s range, finishing close to the prior two closes. Volume across these three sessions appeared lighter than what followed later in the week, consistent with typical pre-FOMC “wait-and-see” positioning.

Driving Force Analysis:

1. Policy watch and positioning:

With the FOMC decision due mid-week, traders largely waited for confirmation of a widely expected 25 bp cut. CME’s FedWatch showed the cut as the base case, which kept directional conviction muted and encouraged range trading.

1. Macro backdrop:

Fresh U.S. inflation readings from the prior week showed mixed but not alarming pressures, keeping the “soft landing” narrative intact and reducing urgency to take risks before the meeting. State Street’s weekly macro brief noted easing in services PPI YoY to 2.9 percent.

1. ETF context:

Spot ETF flow headlines did not show a uniform impulse early in the week. The tone was neutral to slightly supportive until Sep 15, when SoSoValue captured daily BTC ETF net inflows of about $260 million, but these flows were not forceful enough to break the range right away.

Dip and Recovery (September 16)

On Sep 16, BTC slipped below the prior day’s floor to an intraday low near $114,801 as traders de-risked into the policy event. The breakdown was brief. Strong dip-buying turned the session around, lifting price back through the mid-$116,000s and as high as roughly $116,970 by day’s end. Relative to the earlier part of the week, trading volume ticked higher, reflecting active two-way flow around the lows and into the rebound. Driving Force Analysis:

1. Position clean-up then dip-buying:

Into the meeting, price undercut recent lows as participants de-risked, then reversed as dip-buyers stepped in. CoinDesk also noted that crypto lagged equities on Sep 16 with nerves around volatility, which fits the whipsaw price action.

1. ETF flows tilted supportive:

Daily prints around Sep 16 showed another positive BTC ETF session, with reports citing more than $290 million in net inflows and a multi-day inflow streak. That backdrop likely aided the rebound after the intraday flush.

Pre-FOMC Chop (September 17)

On Sep 17, price action broadened and volatility increased. BTC swung between roughly $114,783 and $117,284 during the session, repeatedly testing both sides of the range as participants positioned for the decision. Volume stayed above the early-week pace, and the close back in the mid-$116,000s kept the structure neutral but coiled for a move.

Driving Force Analysis:

1. Event risk fully in focus:

By Sep 17, the market had largely priced a cut and shifted to the nuance of guidance and dots. CoinDesk’s Asia briefing captured that traders were “bracing” for the decision with attention on liquidity tests and token unlocks, which encouraged coiling price action rather than trend extension.

1. Expectations management:

The Fed’s projections pointed to more easing through 2025, but the market still needed to hear the tone from Chair Powell. That balance of “cut is priced, tone unknown” favored base-building.

Post-FOMC Breakout Attempt (September 18)

On Sep 18, after the Fed delivered the expected 25 bp cut, risk appetite improved and BTC pushed through $117,000, tagging a weekly high near $117,910 before consolidating just below the peak into the close around $117,277. Trading volume increased versus the week’s average, consistent with event-driven participation and follow-through interest after the headline.

Driving Force Analysis:

1. Fed delivers a 25 bp cut:

The Federal Reserve cut the policy rate by 25 bp and framed it as a risk-management step amid softer labor signals. BTC pushed higher after the announcement, printing near $117,484 to $117,900 in immediate reaction according to real-time coverage.

2. Global follow-through:

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority mirrored the move by cutting its base rate by 25 bp, reinforcing a global easing impulse that tends to support risk assets.

3. Flows and sentiment:

Despite ETF net flows looking more cautious right after the decision, price still advanced, implying that the policy catalyst and broader risk-on tone outweighed near-term flow hesitation.

Summary

Bitcoin spent the week range-trading ahead of the FOMC, undercutting lows mid-week, then recovered and attempted an upside break after the Fed delivered a 25 bp cut. The decision and a broadly risk-on tone were the dominant drivers, while ETF flow headlines were mixed but not disruptive. Price action evolved from early-week sideways consolidation to a brief dip and swift retracement, followed by choppier pre-event positioning and a post-decision push that tested the highs. Into the period close, the bias was bullish. Across the week, BTC cycled between roughly $114,400 and $117,910.

2. Market Dynamics and Macroeconomic Background

Capital Flows

1. ETF Capital Dynamics

This week, Bitcoin spot ETFs remained net positive on the whole, with four sessions of inflows and one day of modest outflows. Based on the Farside Investors BTC ETF flow tracker, cumulative net flow across these five trading days was about +$1.186 billion. The pattern suggests steady allocator demand into and after the FOMC week, with only a brief mid-week pause:

• September 12: +$642.4 million

• September 15: +$259.9 million

• September 16: +$292.3 million

• September 17: −$51.3 million

• September 18: +$42.5 million

ETF Inflow/Outflow Data Image

Supported by four inflow days and a single, relatively small outflow, spot ETFs continued to serve as the primary channel for institutions and traditional investors to allocate to Bitcoin. The strong prints on September 12 through September 16 point to persistent buying interest around the mid-$110,000 price zone, while the brief net outflow on September 17 likely reflected event-risk positioning around the Fed decision rather than a broader reversal. The return to net inflow on September 18 indicates demand remained intact following the policy announcement, keeping the overall weekly trend constructive.

2. Miner inflow hits historical peak

On September 13th, CryptoOnchain pointed out that the realized inflow of Bitcoin miners into the trading platform reached a historical peak of 18.70 billion dollars, setting the largest scale of miner holding currency transfer in history. Possible reasons include:

• Being forced to sell
• Strategic fulfillment

This move highlights supply-side pressure, may limit the short-term upward space of Bitcoin, and increase market volatility risks.

Related images

3. On-chain fund inflows refresh records

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed out that in the year and a half from 2024 to now, the total inflow of funds on the Bitcoin chain has reached $625 billion, exceeding the cumulative $435 billion from 2009 to 2024, indicating a significant acceleration in the scale of funds.

Related images

4. Long-term holders significantly increase their holdings

On September 17th, CryptoQuant data showed that Bitcoin recorded the second largest single-day increase in 2025: a total of 29,685 BTC (about $3.40 billion) flowed into long-term holders' addresses through over the counter, indicating that large funds are still buying on dips.Related images

5. Exchange supply hits 7-year low

On September 18th, crypto analyst The DeFi Investor pointed out that the Bitcoin balance on centralized exchanges has dropped to a seven-year low, indicating that institutional funds continue to flow into the Spot Market and hold coins in long-term wallets.

Relevant Image

Technical Indicator Analysis

1. Relative Strength Index (RSI 14)

According to Bitbo, as of Sep 19, 2025, Bitcoin’s 14-day RSI is 69.99 with price at $117,222.79. This places RSI right below the classic overbought threshold of 70, indicating strong short-term momentum and a market that is pressing into overbought territory but has not yet closed above it.

Over the past week, RSI trended higher and finished in the high-60s, showing a clear pickup in bullish pressure as price pushed toward the weekly highs. A sustained close above 70 would typically confirm overbought conditions and raise the probability of near-term consolidation or pullbacks. Conversely, if RSI cools toward 50–55 while price holds firm, it would suggest a healthy reset of momentum rather than a breakdown.

Bitcoin 14-day RSI Data Image

2. Moving Average (MA) Analysis

• MA5 (5-day): $116,793
• MA20 (20-day): $113,812
• MA50 (50-day): $116,645
• MA100 (100-day): $112,035
• MA200 (200-day): $105,008

• Current price (reference at Sep 19, 2025):$117,222.79

MA5, MA20, MA50, MA100, MA200 Data Image

The reference price at $117,222.79 is above all tracked moving averages (MA5, MA20, MA50, MA100, MA200). The short-term stack is constructive, with MA5 ($116,793) sitting just above MA50 ($116,645) and both well above MA20 ($113,812).

This configuration indicates near-term momentum remains positive and dips toward $116,645–$116,793 are the first support band watched by traders. The medium-term picture is also supportive, with MA50 above MA100 ($112,035) and MA200 ($105,008). The long-term trend stays firmly bullish while price holds comfortably over MA200.

A sustained hold above MA50 would keep the bias positive; a daily close back below MA5 and MA50 would warn of a short-term momentum pause back toward MA20 around $113,812.

3. Key Support and Resistance Levels

Support Levels: After the mid-week dip, buyers defended the $114,500–$116,000 area multiple times, marking it as the week’s first key support band. On Sep 16, the market undercut to an intraday low near $114,801 and quickly reversed, and on Sep 13–15 several intraday pulls toward roughly $115,200 were absorbed, confirming persistent bids in that zone. A higher support subsequently formed around $116,000 following the post-FOMC push; pullbacks into the $116,000–$116,200 area were bought on Sep 17–18, indicating that prior resistance turned into near-term support.

Resistance Levels: The first overhead barrier emerged around $117,300, which capped advances on Sep 17. After the Fed decision on Sep 18, price extended to a weekly high near $117,910 but failed to sustain above that level into the close, marking $117,900–$118,000 as the principal resistance band for the week. A clean daily hold above $118,000 would open room for momentum continuation; failure to reclaim that zone keeps the market in a range with $116,000 as the pivot and $114,800–$115,200 as the downside line in the sand.

Comprehensive Analysis:

Overall, Bitcoin’s short-term structure this week still fits the pattern of “support stepping higher, resistance tightening,” but the ceiling has shifted up. Bottom buying remains resilient, with the first defense zone now anchored by the MA50–MA5 band at $116,645–$116,793 and secondary support at the recent swing floor of $114,800–$115,200. On the topside, supply is concentrated near $117,300 and again at $117,900–$118,000. The 14-day RSI at 69.99 tells us momentum is strong but stretched, so the market is in a range-bound, gradually converging phase where follow-through matters more than the initial spike.

If bulls can continue to hold above the $116,600 area and convert $117,300 into a daily closing support, I expect an upside probe of $117,900–$118,000 with a good chance of a brief breakout attempt. A clean acceptance above $118,000 would likely trigger another leg up as short-term momentum resets from overbought back toward the mid-60s on RSI without breaking trend. Conversely, if repeated rejections occur at $117,900–$118,000 while RSI remains near 70, a routine cool-off toward the MA band ($116,645–$116,793) is the base case, with a deeper retest of $114,800–$115,200 only if liquidity thins or capital flows turn negative. Net-net, the bias remains for an oscillating grind higher, but confirmation still hinges on sustained volume through $118,000 and whether ETF and exchange flows keep absorbing any profit-taking into strength.

Market Sentiment Analysis

As of Sep 19, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index reads 52 in the Neutral band. Yesterday’s read was 51, last week’s was 50, and last month’s was 53, indicating sentiment has edged up week over week but remains balanced rather than euphoric.

Through the week of Sep 13–Sep 19, the sentiment index on CMC’s chart remained broadly flat in the Neutral zone, showing little change even as price tested the upper range. The index never entered Greed territory. That aligns with our technical picture: price pressed into resistance near $117,900–$118,000 and the 14-day RSI rose to 69.99, yet the sentiment gauge did not spike into Greed or Extreme Greed. In other words, momentum improved without a surge in crowd exuberance.

Looking ahead, if BTC can secure daily closes above $118,000 with expanding spot volume and continued ETF net inflows, the index likely drifts into mid-50s to low-60s (Greed) as confidence builds. If attempts to break stall and price cools toward the MA50–MA5 band around $116,645–$116,793, the index likely slips back toward high-40s to low-50s. For now, sentiment is constructive but disciplined, which is typically favorable for trend continuation without immediate blow-off risk.

Fear & Greed Index Data Image

Macroeconomic Background

1. Monetary Policy Update: Fed Cuts 25 bp

The Federal Reserve delivered a 25 bp rate cut at the September meeting, setting the target range at 4.00%–4.25%, the first reduction since December. The statement cited moderated growth, slower job gains, and an uptick in inflation that “remains somewhat elevated,” while explicitly noting that downside risks to employment have risen.

A lower policy rate reduces the hurdle rate for risk assets and tends to ease financial conditions when not offset by hawkish guidance. This week’s mix was easing with caution: the cut supports risk appetite, but the Fed avoided pre-committing to a path of rapid easing. For BTC, this usually translates into:
• Rates and USD transmission: If front-end yields soften and the dollar drifts lower, BTC’s risk-premium improves. Conversely, if yields back up on the “cautious” tone, upside can stall even with a cut.
• Liquidity and flows: Cheaper funding and improved risk sentiment can bolster spot ETF inflows and stablecoin “dry powder” rotation into BTC. The sustainability of any breakout depends on whether those flows re-accelerate post-FOMC.
• Volatility path: With the Fed explicitly data-dependent, incoming labor and inflation prints can swing expectations. A run of softer claims/NFP or cooler inflation would increase odds of additional 25 bp cuts (some houses, e.g., Nomura, now pencil in more cuts into year-end), a setup that historically supports crypto into Q4.

Transcript of Chair Powell's Press Conference Image

2. U.S. Labor Market Data: Jobless Claims Retreat, Labor Still Softening

Initial jobless claims fell by 33,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ended September 13, 2025, reversing the prior week’s spike to 264,000 and marking the largest one-week drop in almost four years. The 4-week moving average edged down to roughly 240,000, and continuing claims declined to about 1.92 million. The move was better than many forecasts and partly unwound a Texas-driven jump that officials said included suspected fraud. Taken together with August’s weak +22,000 nonfarm payroll gain and a 4.3% unemployment rate, the broader picture still points to a labor market that is cooling at the margin rather than re-accelerating.
The claims retreat reduces immediate recession anxiety but does not negate the trend toward softer labor conditions. In practical terms, a claims level in the low-to-mid 200,000s supports the Fed’s decision to start easing policy while keeping a cautious tone.

3. Inflation Mix: PPI Softens, CPI Stays Sticky

•PPI Data: The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.1% m/m in August after rising 0.7% in July. Services declined 0.2% m/m while goods rose 0.1% m/m. On a 12-month basis PPI increased 2.6% y/y.

•CPI Data: The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% m/m in August after 0.2% in July. Headline CPI rose 2.9% y/y and core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 3.1% y/y; core CPI increased 0.3% m/m.

The combination of a softer PPI print and a still-sticky CPI keeps the inflation mix mixed. Wholesale price pressure eased in August, led by a decline in services, but consumer-level inflation remained firm enough to hold core at 3.1% y/y with a 0.3% m/m gain. In practice, this supports the Fed’s decision to begin easing while maintaining caution on the pace of subsequent cuts. For markets and BTC, the near-term implication is that real rates can drift lower if front-end yields soften on continued producer-side relief, but a CPI that refuses to decelerate meaningfully will likely cap how dovish the policy path can get.

4. Gold Prices Eases From Record Highs

Spot gold set a new all-time high early in the week, then faded as the dollar and Treasury yields firmed after the Fed’s 25 bp cut and cautious guidance. On Wednesday, spot gold hit a record $3,707.40/oz before slipping nearly 1 percent to $3,658.25 later that session. By Thursday it eased to $3,655.10, and on Friday hovered around $3,646.23. December U.S. gold futures were roughly $3,678–$3,690 late in the week. Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust fell 0.44%, signaling some investor outflow.

The Fed framed the cut as precautionary and avoided signaling an aggressive easing path, which lifted the dollar and nudged yields higher on balance. That combination typically caps upside for non-yielding assets like gold, prompting a consolidation after the spike to new records.

Relevant Image

5. U.S. Treasury Yields Edge Higher Post-Fed

U.S. rates pushed higher after the Fed’s 25 bp cut and “risk-management” framing, with the 10-year Treasury yield around 4.10% and the 2-year near 3.57% into Thursday, indicating a modest bear-steepening as investors priced a slower, more conditional easing path.

A gently higher yield backdrop tends to cap the speed of BTC upside in the very short run by lifting discount rates and supporting the dollar, especially if the 10-year holds above the 4% handle.

6. U.S. Dollar Weakness

The dollar started the week on the back foot, with the dollar index sliding to 96.636 on Sep 16 as markets leaned into a dovish Fed path. That weakness faded after the decision: the Fed cut 25 bp but signaled no rush to ease, and the subsequent drop in weekly jobless claims supported a bounce in the greenback. By Sep 18 the DXY had recovered to roughly 97.37, while the euro slipped to $1.1785 and the yen weakened to about 147.95 per dollar. The pattern is classic “whipsaw”: early expectations of aggressive easing knocked the dollar lower, then cautious guidance and firmer data steadied it.

A firmer USD and slightly higher Treasury yields tend to cap BTC upside near resistance because they tighten global financial conditions and raise the discount rate on risk assets.

Hashrate Changes

Over the past seven days the network showed a classic “mid-week surge, late-week dip and rebound” pattern. Aggregate computing power oscillated mostly between 0.9 ZH/s and 1.2 ZH/s, pointing to a still-elevated security budget even as miners adjusted uptime around the difficulty window.

From Sep 11 to the early hours of Sep 13, hashrate drifted lower from just under 1.0 ZH/s toward the ~0.85–0.90 ZH/s area. This soft patch suggests temporary curtailments or routine maintenance, likely where power prices were less favorable.

Beginning Sep 14, miners ramped back online and the curve turned up, with the network rising through ~1.0 ZH/s and printing a series of higher intraday peaks into Sep 15 and Sep 16. During this stretch the chart shows multiple pushes into the ~1.05–1.10 ZH/s zone, consistent with fleets redeploying capacity ahead of the next difficulty adjustment.

On Sep 17, hashrate accelerated sharply and tagged the week’s high near 1.2 ZH/s, a level that typically coincides with broad uptime across major pools and hydropower or low-cost baseload coming through. The spike implies continued installation of efficient rigs and strong availability across regions.

By Sep 18, the line retraced intraday to the ~0.86–0.90 ZH/s area, then rebounded into the ~1.1 ZH/s region later in the day. Such intraday swings are common around difficulty retargets and during power-price volatility; they rarely affect security meaningfully but can squeeze lower-efficiency operators. As of September 19 (time of writing), according to Bitinfocharts’ daily average estimate, network hashrate stood near 1.05 ZH/s; CoinWarz’s real-time estimate showed ~1.11 ZH/s, with network difficulty around 142–143T.

Net-net, this week preserved a high plateau of computing power with a mid-week peak near 1.2 ZH/s and a brief dip toward ~0.9 ZH/s before recovery. The pattern supports the view that miners continue to add or optimize next-generation hardware, while short-term power dynamics still drive day-to-day variability. For the network, security remains robust; for miners, rising average hashrate keeps competitive pressure elevated and makes margins increasingly sensitive to BTC price and fees.

Weekly Bitcoin Network Hashrate Data

8. Mining Revenue

Revenue rose from $46.00M on Sep 12 to $60.57M by Sep 18, a clear recovery that broadly tracked BTC’s price firming and steady fee levels. According to YCharts data, over the past week, Bitcoin miners’ daily total revenue (including block rewards and transaction fees) fluctuated between $46.00 million and $60.57 million, detailed as follows:

• Sep 12: $46.00M
• Sep 13: $56.62M
• Sep 14: $58.59M
• Sep 15: $60.08M
• Sep 16: $59.24M
• Sep 17: $58.80M
• Sep 18: $60.57M

Bitcoin Miners’ Daily Revenue Data

Day-to-day fluctuations remained modest after Sep 14, suggesting that price and fee volatility were contained even as hashrate oscillated.

Hashrate Index’s 7-day view shows hashprice (USD earned per PH/s per day) holding roughly in the $53–$55 per PH/s per day band for most of Sep 12–18, with a brief push toward the mid-$54s on the morning of Sep 18, followed by a sharp downtick into Sep 19 toward about $52 per PH/s per day at ~11:00 a.m. (UTC shown on the chart). This pattern is consistent with the mid-week BTC price pop and a subsequent reset as hashrate and difficulty stayed elevated.

Aggregate miner income improved week over week while unit economics stayed tight. With hashprice hovering near the low-to-mid $50s/PH/s/day and difficulty near record territory, operators with newer rigs and competitive power contracts remain best positioned, while lower-efficiency fleets are more sensitive to any BTC price pullback.

Hashprice Data

9. Energy Costs and Mining Efficiency

This week saw notable developments in mining fleet efficiency and energy cost pressures, especially among operators deploying newer rigs and negotiating favorable power contracts. One of the key stories is that BTC Digital, on September 16, 2025, announced it is deploying “next-generation mining rigs” specifically to improve its energy efficiency in hashing operations. These rigs are intended to boost hashrate per watt, allowing the company to generate more BTC with lower electricity outlay. In terms of cost dynamics, the Mining Cost-to-Price Ratio (average production cost ÷ BTC spot price) currently stands at ~0.98, based on a $115,122 mining cost and ~$117,200 spot price. This indicates that miners remain modestly profitable, but with only a thin margin, leaving them more sensitive to energy cost increases or price pullbacks.The current BTC difficulty is 142.34 T at block 915,379, resulting in a Bitcoin mining difficulty increase of 1.47% in the last 24 hours.

BTC Difficulty Data

In addition, as of mid-week, data from Macromicro on “Bitcoin Average Mining Costs” revealed that the average cost to produce one Bitcoin had moved up to $115,122 (as of September 16, 2025), compared to earlier data that placed production costs nearer $101,205 two days earlier (around September 14). That jump reflects rising energy costs or higher operational input costs, especially for miners with older or less efficient rigs.

Putting these together, what it means is that efficiency is now a more urgent differentiator than ever. Miners with modern, low-watts-per-terahash machines and access to cheaper or renewable energy are gaining cost-advantages, while older rigs are being squeezed. As energy or per-kWh prices rise, those disadvantages will become more acute. For BTC itself, this dynamic has several implications: at current BTC prices, rising production cost pressures can limit how low miners are willing to sell, which can reduce downward pressure on price; on the flip side, if costs rise too fast without higher BTC price or fees, miner capitulation or reduced hashrate uptime becomes a risk.

BTC Puell Multiple Data

Over the past week, Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple oscillated between ~0.99 and 1.34, showing a steady rise in miner revenue relative to its one-year average issuance value, followed by a mid-week dip and renewed recovery.

• On September 12, the Puell Multiple was near 1.21, reflecting muted miner revenue at the lower end of the neutral range.

• From September 13 to 15, the ratio climbed steadily, reaching around 1.34 by September 15, as daily miner revenues improved alongside stable BTC prices around $116K.

• On September 16, it remained elevated near 1.32, signaling continued miner profitability above baseline issuance trends.

• By September 17, the Multiple fell sharply to around 1.05, suggesting that miner revenue momentum weakened temporarily, likely linked to intraday hashrate volatility and adjustments in transaction fees.

• Toward the end of the week, on September 18–19, the metric rebounded toward 1.31, aligning with BTC prices stabilizing around $116.8K–$117K.

Overall, this week’s Puell Multiple indicates that miner revenues have improved modestly compared to the yearly average, with the ratio staying above 1.0 for most of the week. This level suggests that miners are operating profitably without entering the overheated zone (typically above 4). The dip mid-week highlights miner sensitivity to short-term fee and price fluctuations, but the quick rebound reflects resilient revenue support. In conclusion, the Puell Multiple this week points to a neutral-to-slightly positive miner environment, supporting network stability while leaving room for further upside should BTC prices extend gains.

10. Policy and Regulatory NewsCoinbase presses DOJ on state-level enforcement conflicts

On Sep 15, Coinbase asked the DOJ to curb state “blue-sky” actions via federal market-structure legislation. National preemption would reduce legal fragmentation and compliance drag for U.S. venues, which would be a tailwind for BTC liquidity and pricing transparency if it advances.

Relevant Image

House Financial Services keeps market-structure pressure on

Committee communications highlighted urgency on U.S. crypto market structure (in the MiCA context). Continued legislative attention sustains the probability of more enabling rules, improving regulatory clarity that supports BTC’s investability.SEC approves generic listing standards for spot commodity ETPs (incl. digital assets)

On 17th Sep, The SEC voted to let NYSE Arca, Nasdaq, and Cboe use “generic” standards to list spot commodity ETPs, including crypto, without case-by-case 19b-4s. The order also approved listing Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund and options on Cboe’s Bitcoin ETF indices. Implication for BTC: lowers friction for additional crypto ETPs, broadens distribution rails, and can deepen longer-run demand. Source: SEC press release.UK FCA proposes exemptions from certain legacy principles for crypto firms

On September 17, Reuters reported the FCA floated exemptions from parts of its principles alongside stricter operational-risk controls (citing a large exchange hack) and a consultation window to Nov 12. Implication: a more tailored U.K. regime could reduce compliance friction yet raise resilience; clearer U.K. rules typically help institutional participation in BTC.

Relevant Image

France, Italy, and Austria urge stronger EU-level oversight under MiCA

On Sep 15, AMF (France), Consob (Italy), and FMA (Austria) have called for direct ESMA supervision and tighter rules on non-EU platforms. Implication: less jurisdiction shopping and more consistent supervision can reduce venue risk premia and support a cleaner institutional BTC market in Europe.

France threatens to curb passporting for some crypto firms

On Sep 15, Paris warned it could try to block certain firms licensed in other EU states from operating domestically, pressing for tighter supervision alignment. Policy friction creates near-term uncertainty for EU access but could accelerate a harmonized, ESMA-led framework.

Swiss banks execute first “binding payment” on a public blockchain

On Sep 16, Swiss lenders completed a legally binding payment using a public chain. Official-sector acceptance of public-chain settlement keeps growing; improved institutional comfort with blockchain infrastructure can spill over into BTC market access and custody.

11. Mining News

DL Holdings enters mining with 2,200 S21XP HYD units

On Sep 17, DL Holdings (HKEX: 1709) said it will acquire 2,200 Bitmain S21XP HYD miners via a USD 21.85 million zero-coupon convertible bond deal, targeting about 1.04 EH/s of incremental hashrate and roughly 200 BTC of annual output at the initial phase. The company aims to build a reserve exceeding 4,000 BTC within two years. For BTC, new institutional-style deployments in Asia point to hashrate persistence and a higher competition bar for miners, which can weigh on hashprice unless spot price or fees rise.

Relevant Image

Miner profitability fell in August as hashrate rose, Jefferies says

On Sep 15, CoinDesk summarized a Jefferies note showing U.S.-listed miners’ profitability declined about 5% in August as network competition increased; the cohort mined 3,573 BTC in August versus 3,598 BTC in July, with MARA producing the most and holding the largest energized hashrate. Into this week, that backdrop helps explain why several miners are diversifying revenue or emphasizing efficiency upgrades. For BTC, tighter miner margins can increase sensitivity to price and fees, occasionally amplifying supply responses during drawdowns.“GPU gold rush”: miners pivot more power to AI/HPC

Between Sep 14 and Sep 15, CoinDesk reported that Core Scientific, Hut 8, and TeraWulf are accelerating AI hosting, with AI data centers offering markedly higher dollars per kWh than SHA-256 mining. This week’s AI narrative underpins why some miners sold fewer coins and sought steadier contracts. For BTC, a successful pivot can reduce forced selling during crypto downturns, indirectly stabilizing miner-related supply pressure.

Pure-play BTC miners reprice on sector momentum

On Sep 18, CoinDesk noted a rally in pure-play mining equities such as MARA and CLSK as BTC pressed toward 118k, raising the question of whether miners will reprice closer to AI/HPC peers. Equity strength improves miners’ capital-raise optionality; for BTC, well-funded miners can keep hashrate growing, raising the difficulty hurdle and pressuring hashprice unless price leadership persists.

Public miner market cap nears 50 billion dollars

On Sep 15, The Miner Mag tallied listed miners’ market value approaching USD 50 billion after a sharp equity rebound, with multiple names setting fresh 52-week highs. A stronger equity window lowers bankruptcy risk and supports fleet upgrades. For BTC, sustained miner financing capacity generally translates into steady hashrate additions and a structurally higher security budget.

Relevant Image

Difficulty poised to rise again around Sep 18

This week, trackers showed another difficulty step-up into the Sep 18 adjustment window, consistent with hashrate strength. Live difficulty dashboards showed current difficulty around the 140T–143T area late in the week. Rising difficulty improves network security but compresses miner margins at a given BTC price, a dynamic that can nudge weaker operators to sell more coins into strength.

Mining stocks’ outperformance vs BTC in September

On Sep 19, CryptoRank summarized that several miner stocks, including Bitfarms and Cipher, posted outsized September gains compared with BTC. Equity outperformance expands financing avenues for hardware and infrastructure. For BTC, stronger miner balance sheets typically extend the up-only difficulty trend, which is constructive for security but a headwind for hashprice unless accompanied by higher BTC price or fee revenue.

Relevant Image

12. Bitcoin News

Global Corporate and National Bitcoin Holdings (This Week’s Statistics)

1. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) adds 525 BTC

On September 15, 2025, Strategy disclosed it purchased 525 BTC for about $60.2 million during the period September 8–14, implying an average price near $114,700 per coin; the filing and follow-up coverage noted this was the firm’s smallest buy in a month and lifted total holdings to roughly 638,9xx BTC (tally varies slightly by source timing). This continued accumulation signals persistent treasury demand even as prices oscillated around the $115,000 area.

2. American Bitcoin Corp discloses 2,443 BTC at market debut

On September 17–18, 2025 coverage, following its earlier September 3 public listing via a merger with Gryphon Digital Mining, American Bitcoin Corp was reported to hold 2,443 BTC (about $285 million at the time). While not a new weekly purchase, the disclosure is relevant to current corporate holdings and highlights the growing cohort of listed U.S. firms with material BTC treasuries.

3. Hyperscale Data launches a $100 million BTC treasury plan; updates holdings

On September 15, 2025, Hyperscale Data announced a $100 million Bitcoin treasury strategy. On September 16, a follow-up release stated the company’s BTC treasury had grown to roughly $7 million as the program commenced. For market context this week, it adds to corporate demand pipelines that can translate into staged BTC purchases through Q4.

4. Next Technology Holding (China) plans up to $500 million stock sale tied to BTC strategy

On September 16, 2025 (reported 3 days ago), Next Technology Holding—described as China’s largest public company with BTC on its balance sheet—said it plans to raise up to $500 million via a common stock offering, with proceeds supporting operations and its Bitcoin-focused strategy. While not an immediate on-chain addition, the planned raise signals continued corporate alignment with BTC as a reserve asset in Asia.

5. Public bitcoin treasuries: August slowed, but September pipeline remains active

On September 14, 2025 (published 4 days ago), CoinDesk reported that public companies acquired 47,718 BTC in August (~$5.2 billion), less than half of July’s pace, even as aggregate corporate treasuries surpassed 1 million BTC for the first time. Entering this week, the pace looks more measured, with new September additions (e.g., Strategy’s +525 BTC) smaller but ongoing, suggesting sustained yet more selective corporate demand.

6. Macro allocators’ stance: large traditional managers spotlight BTC

During the week (4 days ago), The Wall Street Journal profiled Capital Group’s portfolio activity and pro-BTC stance from portfolio manager Mark Casey, noting billions of dollars in exposure across BTC and bitcoin-centric firms. While not a direct treasury purchase this week, it underscores continued institutional validation that can support future corporate allocations.

7. CDT Equity buys 8.65 BTC for $1.0 million

On September 17, 2025, CDT Equity Inc. announced it acquired 8.65252366 BTC for a total purchase price of $1,000,000, implying an average cost of $115,285 per BTC; the company framed this as the first step in a broader crypto treasury reserve strategy. For BTC, even small listed-company allocations add to the pipeline of steady, price-insensitive demand.

8. GSTechnologies allocates $2 million to begin a BTC treasury

On September 17, 2025, GSTechnologies disclosed it has earmarked an initial $2 million to purchase bitcoin, with a plan to add more over time at “strategic intervals.” This week’s move adds another U.K.-listed name to the active corporate-buyer cohort.

9. Hyperscale Data sets aside $5 million and lifts BTC treasury to $7 million

On September 16, 2025, Hyperscale Data said it had set aside $5 million for near-term open-market BTC purchases and that its BTC treasury reached about $7 million as of September 14; the firm said it will provide weekly updates as it executes a $100 million program.

10. Hyperscale Data treasury rises again to $8 million, now 34% of market cap

On September 18, 2025, Hyperscale Data updated that its BTC treasury climbed to roughly $8 million, representing 34% of its market capitalization, with growth driven by both purchases and self-mined coins. The cadence of updates this week underscores an ongoing, programmatic buyer in spot markets.

11. American Bitcoin Corp enters public markets with 2,443 BTC disclosed

On September 17–18, 2025, Barron’s reported that American Bitcoin Corp, newly public after its merger with Gryphon Digital Mining, held 2,443 BTC at launch, worth about $285 million at the time; the company outlined plans to expand both mining and treasury holdings. This week’s disclosure adds transparency to a large new corporate holder.

12. ProCap BTC highlights more than $60 million appreciation on its BTC stack

On September 18–19, 2025, ProCap BTC said that following purchases totaling about 4,950 BTC at a time-weighted average price near $104,334, the rise in BTC to roughly $117,620 on September 17 translated to over $60 million in unrealized gains. The update, coming this week, reinforces the mark-to-market sensitivity of corporate treasuries to spot price.

13. Metaplanet says it is “closing” a large raise to buy more BTC

On September 17, 2025, Bitcoin Magazine reported that Japan-listed Metaplanet plans to close a large fundraising and deploy capital into BTC between September and October 2025, alongside expansion of its mining footprint. This week’s guidance points to additional near-term corporate demand from a top non-U.S. treasury.

14. One in four public BTC-treasury firms now trade below their BTC value

25% of public bitcoin-treasury companies trade below the value of their BTC holdings, highlighting dispersion in equity valuations. This week’s finding matters for BTC because discounted treasuries can catalyze capital raises or M&A that ultimately change corporate holding profiles.

15. Bitcoin Treasury Corporation uplists to OTCQX

On September 18, 2025, OTC Markets said Bitcoin Treasury Corporation was welcomed to the OTCQX tier. While this is a listing venue move rather than a new purchase, improved market access can broaden investor participation in listed BTC-treasury plays, indirectly supporting future balance-sheet accumulation.

16. Amazing AI PLC updates crypto treasury policy to include BTC and begins purchases this month

On September 18, 2025, Amazing AI PLC updated its crypto treasury policy to include a diversified basket with BTC and ETH, stating it will begin buying this month using funds from an accelerated bookbuild completed on September 11. The policy update this week signals another corporate entrant planning active BTC exposure.

Coinbase CEO Confirms Kevin Durant’s Bitcoin Account Restored

Relevant Image

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has ended speculation about NBA star Kevin Durant’s locked Bitcoin account, confirming on September 19 that the player successfully regained access. Durant originally opened his Coinbase account nearly a decade ago and began buying Bitcoin in 2016 when it traded near $650. With BTC now around $117,000, even a modest early stake has grown into multimillion-dollar value.

BTC Inc. and Strategy Renew Five-Year Partnership to Accelerate Corporate Bitcoin Adoption

On September 19, 2025, BTC Inc. and Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) announced a five-year renewal of their strategic partnership through the “Bitcoin for Corporations” (BFC) initiative. BFC currently unites 38 member companies controlling roughly 69% of all corporate Bitcoin holdings, making it the leading global platform for firms managing Bitcoin on balance sheets. The renewal aims to strengthen BFC’s role as a trusted network for treasury executives, service providers, and capital allocators integrating Bitcoin into corporate finance.Relevant Image

Saylor Warns Against Bitcoin Protocol Changes

Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), argued this week that Bitcoin has reached an “ossification” stage, where changes to the protocol must be treated as existential threats rather than innovations. He emphasized that stability and immutability are now Bitcoin’s greatest assets, positioning it as a monetary standard. In his view, attempts to alter Bitcoin risk undermining its trust and adoption, while the network’s long-term value lies in resisting change.

Trump Statue and Durant Account News Stir Market Volatility

Bitcoin’s price slipped this week amid unusual headlines from Washington, D.C., where a statue of Donald Trump holding a Bitcoin logo was unveiled. The spectacle drew media attention but also coincided with broader market jitters. At the same time, NBA star Kevin Durant regained access to his decade-old Coinbase account, which contained Bitcoin purchased when the asset traded near $650. While Durant’s story highlights massive long-term gains, traders reacted more to the political theatrics, with the overall effect being short-term volatility for BTC.

Relevant Image

PayPal Introduces Crypto-Enabled “Links” for Transfers

PayPal announced a new feature called PayPal Links, enabling users to send Bitcoin, Ethereum, and its PYUSD stablecoin via shareable URLs. Recipients can accept payments without exposing banking details, and links can be sent through messaging apps or email. The service debuts in the U.S. before expanding internationally later this month. By integrating direct BTC and ETH transfers, PayPal continues its push toward crypto interoperability, now serving over 400 million users worldwide.

Relevant Image