1. Bitcoin Market
BTC chart
Bitcoin moved in a sequence of “plateau holding → range breakdown → ETF-driven rebound → sharp flush → stabilization.” The weekly high was 116,138.4 USD (Sep 20) and the weekly low was 108,675.3 USD (Sep 25), a swing of ~6.4%. BTC closed Sep 26 at 109,681.3 USD, down ~5.2% from the Sep 20 close of 115,699.2 USD. The attached chart shows this progression clearly: stability near 115–116k at the start, step-down to 112k, a short-lived rebound, a sharp air-pocket lower, and consolidation around 109k.
Phase 1 – Plateau Holding near 115–116k (Sep 20–21)
BTC began the week with tight, controlled ranges. Sep 20: high 116,138.4, low 115,424.9, close 115,699.2. Sep 21: high 115,833.2, low 115,205.5, close 115,243.0. Price largely oscillated inside a narrow 400–700 point band and held the 115k shelf, reflecting cautious stability.
Driving Force Analysis:
Markets were digesting the Fed’s prior week 25 bp cut while awaiting fresh catalysts such as U.S. Core PCE. Directional conviction was muted, and traders chose to hold positions rather than extend risk. ETF flows were quiet, keeping sentiment neutral.
Phase 2 – Range Breakdown into 112k Zone (Sep 22–23)
The steady plateau gave way early in the workweek. Sep 22: high 115,382.7, low 111,964.9, close 112,673.0. Sep 23: high 113,279.9, low 111,501.9, close 112,002.6. BTC lost the 115k handle and slipped into the 112k area, where it hovered for two sessions.
Driving Force Analysis:
Coverage highlighted post-Fed de-risking and futures liquidations as leveraged longs unwound. Broader risk appetite was fragile heading into macro data, encouraging a defensive stance. Traders described this phase as “clearing excess leverage” rather than a fundamental trend break.
Phase 3 – ETF Inflows Spark Mid-Week Bounce (Sep 24)
BTC staged a relief rally after the breakdown. Sep 24: high 113,951.0, low 111,212.0, close 113,307.1. Price rebounded nearly 1,800 points intraday and closed higher, marking the week’s only meaningful uptick.
Driving Force Analysis:
Spot BTC ETFs posted ~US$241m in net inflows on Sep 24 (SoSoValue data), led by BlackRock’s IBIT. This fresh demand supported dip-buying and fueled the one-day recovery. Despite broader caution, ETF inflows gave traders confidence to test the 113–114k zone again.
Phase 4 – Sharp Flush on Renewed Outflows (Sep 25)
The bounce quickly failed as sellers overwhelmed the market. Sep 25: high 113,508.6, low 108,675.3, close 109,016.3. This was the week’s decisive breakdown, with BTC tumbling nearly 4k intraday and closing under 110k.
Driving Force Analysis:
ETF flows flipped back negative with ~US$258m net outflows on Sep 25, led by redemptions in Fidelity’s FBTC and others. Combined with continued deleveraging, this triggered stop-driven selling and the steep drop seen on the chart.
Phase 5 – Stabilization around 109k (Sep 26)
BTC steadied at lower levels after the flush. Sep 26: high 109,804.5, low 108,851.1, close 109,681.3. Price coiled in a tight 950-point range, consolidating losses without follow-through downside.
Driving Force Analysis:
Markets paused as traders awaited the U.S. Core PCE inflation release. With leverage cleared and ETF flows quieter, the market entered a “wait-and-see” phase. Analysts framed the decline as positioning-driven rather than a structural shift in demand.
Summary
From Sep 20–26, BTC transitioned from stable plateau trading near 115–116k into a step-down at 112k, staged a brief ETF-driven bounce, then flushed to a weekly low of 108,675.3 on renewed outflows before stabilizing near 109.7k. The weekly span was 116,138.4 → 108,675.3, finishing ~5.2% lower week-on-week. The sequence was dominated by ETF flows flipping positive then negative (Sep 24 inflows vs Sep 25 outflows) and a macro backdrop that encouraged de-risking into the U.S. inflation print.
2. Market Trends and Macro Background
Capital Flows
1. ETF Flows
This week, Bitcoin spot ETF flows were highly volatile, reflecting frequent short-term speculative activity:
September 22: -$363.1 million
September 23: -$103.8 million
September 24: +$241.0 million
September 25: -$3.331 billion
ETF inflow/outflow chart
Net outflows on the 22nd–23rd, combined with a liquidation wave, indicate short-term capital risk aversion. The positive inflow on the 24th was mainly driven by dip-buying, but not enough to reverse the overall trend. The huge outflow of -$3.331 billion on the 25th completely erased prior inflows, showing that panic-driven redemptions remain strong. This suggests ETF capital flows were extremely sensitive to price swings this week, reversing sharply under short-term negative triggers.
2. Short-Term Crash and Liquidation Wave
In late September, Bitcoin experienced two sharp liquidation events, amplifying short-term volatility.
On September 22, the crypto market saw heavy sell-offs within a short period. Total liquidations reached $1.5 billion, with BTC and ETH long positions taking the biggest hit, marking the largest single-day liquidation in 2025. Bitcoin briefly dropped to $111,900 before quickly rebounding on dip-buying.
On September 26, another liquidation wave hit. According to Coinglass, in the prior 24 hours, total liquidations reached $1.202 billion, with longs accounting for $1.095 billion vs $107 million in shorts. By asset: Bitcoin long liquidations $273 million, shorts $9.91 million; Ethereum long liquidations $413 million, shorts $37.37 million. A total of 266,671 traders were liquidated, with the largest single liquidation being a $29.12 million ETH-USD perpetual contract on Hyperliquid.
These two concentrated liquidation events highlight how sensitive leveraged capital remains, with chain reactions easily triggered by price swings. In the short term, liquidation waves amplified selling pressure, forcing ETF and on-exchange funds to pull out, leading to net daily outflows. At the same time, lower post-liquidation levels attracted dip buyers and mid-to-long-term allocators back in.
3. Bitcoin Exchange Flows (Inflow/Outflow)
On September 25, CEX net outflows over the past 24 hours totaled 7,989.16 BTC:
Coinbase Pro: -7,753.21 BTC
Binance: -555.96 BTC
Bybit: -348.13 BTC
Bitfinex: +524.51 BTC (largest net inflow)
Earlier, data from September 21 showed that over the past 7 days, CEX platforms saw cumulative net outflows of about 40,213.72 BTC.
Funds are flowing from centralized exchanges to cold/custody wallets, indicating investors’ preference for long-term holding (HODL). Sustained net outflows are typically viewed as a mid-to-long-term bullish signal.
4. Stablecoin Market Conditions
Total stablecoin market cap: $292.623 billion (as of September 20)
7-day growth: +1.37%
Market structure changes:
USDT dominance fell to 58.79%
USDE minted +5.57% in the past week
USDC minted +1.59% in the past week
This trend shows that while USDT remains dominant, its share is gradually being diluted, with funds shifting toward newer or more scenario-specific stablecoins. The overall expansion of stablecoin market cap provides additional liquidity and trading capital for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Meanwhile, shifts in share highlight structural diversification, likely tied to evolving chain ecosystems, DeFi demand, and trading platform adjustments. This structural change may provide forward-looking signals for future capital flows.
Relevant chart
Technical Indicator Analysis
1. Relative Strength Index (RSI 14)
According to Bitbo, as of September 26, Bitcoin’s 14-day RSI stood at 33.02, near the oversold threshold (below 30 = typical oversold). This indicates some short-term rebound potential, but selling pressure remains strong. RSI has trended down all week, showing weak bullish momentum. If RSI falls below 30, it will reinforce the oversold technical signal.
Bitcoin 14-day RSI chart
2. Moving Average (MA) Analysis
MA5 (5-day): $112,036
MA20 (20-day): $114,009
MA50 (50-day): $116,516
MA100 (100-day): $113,401
Current price: $109,761
MA5, MA20, MA50, MA100, M200 chart
Bitcoin is trading below MA5, MA20, MA50, and MA100, firmly in a bearish trend. Short-term MA5 is accelerating downward and has crossed below MA20, reinforcing bearish dominance. Mid-term, both MA20 and MA50 are sloping down, showing continued selling pressure. Unless price recovers above MA20 (~$114,000), the bearish trend will persist.
3. Key Support and Resistance Levels
Support:
Short-term key levels are $108,800 and $112,000. On September 22, Bitcoin dropped to $112,000 before stabilizing, showing strong buyer defense there. On September 26, price briefly dipped to $108,800 before rebounding, proving it remains a critical defense line. Overall, $108,800 has become the core short-term support level to watch.
Resistance:
Near-term resistance is $110,000, followed by $114,000. On September 25, price was rejected near $114,000. On September 26, rebounds repeatedly failed to break $110,000, showing strong selling pressure at these levels.
Comprehensive Analysis
Overall, Bitcoin traded weak this week with bears in control:
RSI near oversold but rebound momentum limited.
Price below all major moving averages, clear bearish alignment.
$108,800 support is critical; if broken, next test could be $106,000–$105,000.
$110,000 resistance must be cleared for any rebound to form.
In summary, after failing to consolidate sideways, Bitcoin broke down, with investor risk appetite sharply lower. Short-term, caution is advised. Bulls should wait for stability above $108,800 and an RSI turn before expecting a rebound. Bears may open further downside if selling volume expands.
Market Sentiment Analysis
As of September 26, the Fear & Greed Index stood at 32, in the “Fear” zone, showing cautious sentiment after two major pullbacks.
Daily index from September 20–26: 48, 48, 47, 40, 39, 41. Range: 32–48. Sentiment
fluctuated significantly, reflecting investor sensitivity to price moves.
Early in the week, the index held near 48, with neutral-to-positive sentiment and confidence in BTC’s range holding. After the sharp drop on the 22nd, it fell to 40, sparking panic selling.
On the 25th, with another sharp decline, the index dipped to 32, showing clear fear and defensive positioning.
Overall, sentiment moved from “neutral → down → slight stabilization → fear.” While not yet in “extreme fear,” confidence is fragile. If BTC fails to stabilize, fear may deepen; conversely, solid support or positive news could lift sentiment.
Fear & Greed Index chart
Macroeconomic Background
1. Fed Policy Updates
Powell speech, September 23: Fed Chair Powell said that while US growth shows signs of slowing, inflation remains above target. This means Fed decisions will continue to focus on inflation, not just slowing growth. His remarks suggest rate cuts may already be priced in, but the Fed could remain cautious to avoid inflation rebound. BTC dipped after his comments, reflecting investor uncertainty over policy path. In today’s high-leverage environment, any Fed signals can drive volatility.
Fed Reverse Repo: On September 20, the Fed absorbed $11.363 billion through fixed-rate reverse repo, showing short-term liquidity demand remains.
Relevant image
2. Key Economic Data and Market Reactions
US Q2 Real GDP (final): 3.8%
Higher than 3.3% estimate, showing strong recovery. Driven mainly by consumer spending in transport, finance, and insurance. Better-than-expected GDP supported risk assets like BTC.
US Q2 Core PCE (final): 2.6%
Slightly above 2.5% estimate, but down from Q1’s 3.3%. Inflation pressures easing, giving
Fed flexibility, mildly supportive for BTC.
Initial Jobless Claims: 218,000
Reported September 25, below forecast of 235,000, showing labor market strength. This raised concerns Fed could slow rate cuts. Together with US government shutdown risk, sentiment cautious, BTC volatile.
Consumer Spending (Q2 annualized growth): 2.5%
Above 1.7% forecast, showing strong internal demand, indirectly supportive for BTC and other risk assets.
3. Bitcoin Market Structure and Derivatives
$23B BTC & ETH options expiry
Deribit reported ~$23B BTC and ETH options expiring today, one of the largest ever. Biggest bets were on two extremes: protective puts below $95k, and calls above $140k. Active short-term positioning shows market sees short squeezes or forced liquidations driving next move.
Tether USDT Issuance
September 20: Whale Alert tracked Tether minting $1B USDT on Ethereum. Over past 8 days, $5B minted in total, likely boosting short-term liquidity and sentiment.
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4. US Trade Policy
September 26: President Trump announced new tariffs effective October 1 — 100% on imported branded drugs, 25% on heavy trucks, 30–50% on furniture/cabinets.
He said the goal is to boost US manufacturing, but retaliation risk could rise, adding uncertainty to global economy and markets. Asian sector stocks fell, BTC dipped, showing investor caution in risk assets.
Relevant chart
5. Hashrate Changes
There was a clear progression this week: a record spike on Sep 20, a step-down over Sep 21–23, a brief mid-week lift, and a lower, steadier band into Sep 25–26. An all-time high was recorded at 1.442 ZH/s on Sep 20, 2025 (block 915,533); by Sep 26 09:59 UTC, the live read was 1,136.56 EH/s, i.e., ~1.137 ZH/s.
Key changes
Sep 20 — New ATH:
Hashrate reached 1.442 ZH/s, marking the week’s (and network’s) peak before the pullback visible on the chart. Difficulty had already reset higher into this week, laying the backdrop for strong aggregate computation.
Sep 21–23 — Pullback from extremes:
The chart shows hashrate retracing from the ATH into a lower band (around the 1.0–1.2 ZH/s gridlines). Importantly, there was no difficulty retarget during Sep 20–26; CoinWarz/YCharts show difficulty sitting at ~142.34 T throughout these dates after the Sep 18 adjustment. That means the day-to-day swings were driven by miner uptime/curtailment and pool-level variance rather than a protocol change.
Sep 24 — Brief lift:
The chart reflects a mid-week up-move back toward the ~1.1 ZH/s area. With difficulty unchanged, this bounce was consistent with more rigs online and normal pool variance rather than a structural shift.
Sep 25 — Local trough then stabilization:
1,039.53 EH/s is shown at 03:19 UTC (~1.040 ZH/s), one of the week’s lower reads, before stabilizing into the ~1.1 ZH/s region.
Sep 26 — Holding ~1.14 ZH/s:
Into Friday morning (09:59 UTC), 1,136.56 EH/s was recorded.
Bitcoin difficulty stepped up to ~142.34 T on Sep 18 and then stayed flat through Sep 26. With difficulty fixed across our window, the week’s hashrate swings primarily reflected miner availability (e.g., regional weather-driven curtailments, maintenance) and natural pool variance, not protocol tuning.
Outlook (next adjustment window and bias)
Retarget timing:
Trackers estimate the next difficulty retarget around Oct 1, 2025 (UTC).
Directional bias:
If hashrate sustains around ~1.1–1.15 ZH/s (as indicated by the Sep 25–26 reads), the bias into the next epoch is modestly upward because blocks tend to arrive a touch faster than the 10-minute target when compute exceeds the level embedded in the current difficulty. This is a standard inference from the protocol’s adjustment rule; the exact percentage will depend on the average interval observed over the full 2,016-block window.
What to watch for next:
1. Sustained >1 ZH/s prints: Maintaining the post-ATH floor above 1 ZH/s would signal that the Sep 20 spike was not a one-off and that new capacity/uptime is sticking. CoinWarz’s current reads support this >1 ZH/s baseline.
2. Pool-share and regional curtailment headlines: Variance between U.S.-based miners (weather and grid conditions) and non-U.S. fleets can still swing realized hashrate day to day; heatwaves or grid events remain the classic catalysts for short-run dips.
3. Difficulty print next week: A higher difficulty would lock in the security gains but mechanically trims miner margins at a given BTC price; a flat or lower print would imply hashrate cooled during the epoch’s close.
Summary
The hashrate section of the attached chart captures a textbook pattern for a post-record week: ATH (Sep 20) → normalization (Sep 21–23) → mid-week lift (Sep 24) → local trough then stabilization (Sep 25–26). With difficulty anchored at ~142.34 T throughout our window and CoinWarz live reads holding >1 ZH/s into Sep 26, the network remains in a high-security regime. Barring exogenous curtailments, the base case is a slight difficulty uptick around Oct 1 as the protocol re-aligns block times to target.
Hashrate changes chart
6. Mining Revenue
According to YCharts, miners’ daily total revenue (block rewards + fees) fluctuated between $50.17M–$59.68M this week:
September 20: $56.55M
September 21: $59.68M
September 22: $54.20M
September 23: $51.05M
September 24: $55.10M
September 25: $50.17M
BTC daily miner revenue chart
Overall, miner revenue trended lower this week, driven by BTC volatility, hashrate changes, and lower fees.
Hashprice data from Hashrate Index shows that as of September 26, Hashprice = $48.71/PH/s/day, with a weekly low of $48.60 on the 26th.
In summary, declining miner revenue this week came mainly from price and fee weakness, while high network hashrate means cost pressure persists. If BTC falls further, Hashprice could face more downside. Long-term, with halving cycle mid-stage and activity steady, miner revenue has support.
Hashprice chart
7. Energy Costs and Mining Efficiency
According to CloverPool, as of September 26, 2025, Bitcoin network hashrate = 1.09 ZH/s, difficulty = 142.34T. Next adjustment on October 2, expected +2.81% to 146.35T. This shows steady hashrate growth, with rising hardware/power costs.
While yields per machine may dip, higher hashrate reflects miner confidence and efficient rigs coming online. In the short term, this boosts network security but pressures smaller miners.
BTC mining difficulty chart
From a cost view, MacroMicro estimates as of September 24, BTC production cost ≈ $102,686.82, spot ≈ $113,328.63. Mining Cost-to-Price Ratio = 0.91, leaving ~9% gross margin.
Margin slightly compressed this week. At current levels miners remain profitable overall, but thinner margins mean weaker players face pressure if price falls, possibly leading to hashrate volatility or migration to lower-cost regions.
BTC mining cost chart
On-chain Puell Multiple stayed in 1.24–1.27 range. This compares daily issuance value vs annual average issuance. It gauges miner profitability and market overheating. Current range shows miner profitability is reasonable, not overheated (Puell >2 = overheated). But with two sharp price drops this week, high-cost miners face cash flow stress.
While Puell suggests overall profits are still decent, volatility has shifted miner risk: minor short-term hashrate swings possible, high-cost miners under pressure, low-cost miners more stable.
BTC Puell Multiple chart
8. Policy and Regulatory News
Russia Rules Out Further Regional Mining Bans
On September 26, 2025, the Russian government confirmed it would not expand regional-level mining bans beyond existing restrictions. The decision provides regulatory clarity for miners operating in Russia, signaling more stable conditions for the sector moving forward.
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U.S. Regulators Probe Stock Moves Before Crypto-Treasury Announcements
On September 26, 2025, U.S. regulators including the SEC and FINRA launched investigations into unusual stock price movements preceding corporate disclosures of crypto treasury strategies. The probe seeks to uncover potential insider trading or selective disclosure violations tied to firms planning crypto purchases.
UK FCA Speeds Up Crypto Firm Approvals
On September 21–25, 2025, the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority accelerated its registration processes for crypto firms, reducing application times from ~17 months to ~5 months, and lifting the approval rate from under 15% to ~45%. This move is seen as an effort to make the UK more crypto-friendly ahead of broader regulation.
China Asks Brokers to Pause RWA Tokenization in Hong Kong
On September 23, 2025, China’s securities regulator (CSRC) reportedly asked domestic brokerages to pause real-world asset (RWA) tokenization business in Hong Kong. This signals Beijing’s increased caution over offshore digital asset expansion—even as Hong Kong seeks to be a crypto hub.
UAE Announces Crypto Tax Reporting Framework (CARF)
On September 20, 2025, the UAE Ministry of Finance unveiled the Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF), setting out phased reporting obligations from 2025 to 2028. The framework is designed to enhance compliance, transparency, and taxation of crypto investors and firms.
Australia Proposes Licensing Crypto Operators under Existing Financial Laws
On September 25, 2025, Australia announced draft legislation requiring crypto service providers to operate under existing Australian Financial Services (AFSL) licensing rules. The draft includes oversight of custody, settlement, and penalties (e.g. fines or turnover caps) for misconduct.
SEC Chair Atkins Vows Enforcement Against Crypto Conflicts
On September 25, 2025, SEC Chair Atkins responded to concerns over conflicts of interest in crypto regulation, asserting the commission will enforce laws “where indicated,” stressing that crypto is not exempt from standard financial oversight.
SEC and CFTC to Host Roundtable on Regulatory Harmonization
On September 24, 2025, the SEC’s Crypto Task Force published the panel agenda for an upcoming joint SEC-CFTC roundtable aimed at aligning regulations across crypto innovation, DeFi, and derivatives.
Crypto Treasury Crackdown: Regulators Eye Market Integrity
On September 26, 2025, a commentary highlighted that regulators are intensifying scrutiny on corporations that adopt crypto treasury strategies—especially focusing on market fairness, disclosure practices, and potential manipulation risks.
U.S. Crypto ETF Pipeline Intensifies Amid Streamlined SEC Processes
On September 24, 2025, reports noted that the U.S. is preparing for a flood of crypto ETF proposals in Q4, following recent SEC moves to streamline approvals. Grayscale announced a multi-asset fund (GDLC) that includes Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others.
Intersection of Banking & Crypto Regulation Gains Policy Focus
On September 25, 2025, a policy analysis detailed the Trump administration’s push for changes to facilitate crypto flows into banking and real estate finance, aiming for deeper integration of digital assets with regulated finance.
9. Mining News
Gryphon Digital Mining Expands U.S. Bitcoin Operations
On September 23, 2025, Gryphon Digital Mining was highlighted for its rapid growth in the U.S. BTC mining sector, positioning itself as a leading player shaping America’s digital asset infrastructure. The company is focusing on energy efficiency and compliance as it scales its operations across multiple states, aiming to influence future U.S. mining standards.
Google Backs $3 Billion Data Center Deal
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On September 24, 2025, Google announced its support for a $3 billion financing deal to build advanced AI-powered data centers in Texas. While not directly tied to Bitcoin mining, the facilities are expected to support blockchain-related workloads, signaling Big Tech’s increasing crossover with digital asset infrastructure.
BTC Miners Defy Odds as Hashrate Hits 1.091 ZH/s
On September 25, 2025, data showed Bitcoin’s network hashrate reached 1.091 ZH/s despite falling miner revenues. The resilience of hashrate under revenue pressure underscores miners’ continued investment in efficient hardware and long-term confidence in the network’s security
Union Jack Oil’s Gas-to-Bitcoin Shift Boosts U.S. Mining
On September 23, 2025, Union Jack Oil announced a strategic pivot, redirecting natural gas resources toward Bitcoin mining. The move strengthens U.S. mining competitiveness by reducing energy waste and leveraging domestic energy supplies for BTC production
Cipher Mining to Issue $800 Million in Convertible Notes
On September 25, 2025, Cipher Mining disclosed plans to privately issue $800 million in convertible senior notes. The financing will fund expansion of its mining capacity and improve its energy efficiency footprint, signaling confidence in scaling operations despite market volatility
FTX Trust Sues Genesis Digital for $1.15 Billion
On September 24, 2025, FTX’s bankruptcy estate filed a $1.15 billion lawsuit against Genesis Digital Assets, alleging fraudulent transfers and preferential payments before FTX’s collapse. The lawsuit could have significant implications for corporate-miner relationships.
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Innovation Beverage Group to Merge with BlockFuel Miner
On September 24, 2025, Innovation Beverage Group announced a merger agreement with Bitcoin miner BlockFuel. The deal, structured as a reverse merger, would provide BlockFuel with public market access while giving Innovation Beverage exposure to the BTC mining industry
Bitcoin Core Developers Debate Upgrade Path
On September 25, 2025, a new round of debate emerged among Bitcoin Core developers over proposed protocol upgrades. Some developers stressed improvements for scalability and privacy, while critics warned about the risks of altering Bitcoin’s base layer, reviving discussions over Bitcoin’s identity and ossification
Bitcoin Miners Enter “Chill Zone” as Profitability Contracts
On September 25, 2025, analysts observed that Bitcoin miners are entering a “chill zone” due to collapsing profit margins. Hashprice dropped below $50/PH/s/day (first time since April), and projections suggest it could fall further toward $46, pushing marginal miners into severe strain.
CleanSpark Secures $100M Expansion via Coinbase-Backed Facility
On September 24, 2025, CleanSpark revealed it had expanded its Bitcoin-backed credit facility with Coinbase Prime by $100 million. The funds will be directed toward scaling mining operations, energy assets, and enhancing data center/infrastructure capabilities.
Cipher Mining Plans $1.1B Convertible Notes Offering
On September 26, 2025, Cipher Mining disclosed plans to issue $1.1 billion in convertible senior notes maturing in 2031, enhancing its capital flexibility. The offering expands on a prior $800 million issuer intention.
Analysts Favor Bitcoin Miners with AI Demand
On September 24, 2025, market analysts upgraded coverage of Bitcoin mining names (e.g. Cipher, IREN, Riot) on expectations of rising AI compute demand and repositioning of mining firms toward hybrid BTC + AI infrastructures.
