1. Bitcoin Market
BTC chart
Prices started the week oscillating around the110.00Kline, broke out, stair-stepped through112.50K,115.00K, and117.50K, printed a weekly highslightly above 120.00K, and then eased to finishnear 120.00K. Net result: a clean up-week of roughly ten thousand points from the~110.00Karea to~120.00K, with two clear acceleration legs separated by brief consolidations.
Phase 1 – Base around 110.00K (27–early 29 Sep)
Price spent multiple sessions choppingjust below and above 110.00K, with repeated touches of that dotted baseline you can see on the chart. The action was balanced—small red/green swings but no break.
Driver (from the chart):equilibrium at a round number (110.00K) where supply and demand were matched; this kind of repeated testing often precedes a directional break.
Phase 2 – Breakout to 112.50K (late 29 Sep)
BTC punched through the prior ceiling, running from the~110.00Kshelf to the next labeled level around112.50K, then paused.
Driver: a clean technical breakout above110.00K likely triggered momentum/stop buying; the move is steep and discrete on the line, typical of “range → impulse.”
Phase 3 – Stair-step in the 112.50K–115.00K band (30 Sep–1 Oct)
After holding~112.50K, price pushed to the~115.00Kneighborhood, dipped back into the112.50K–115.00Kband, and recovered—classic stair-step behavior.
Driver: post-break consolidation and a shallow pullback into the prior breakout zone, then continuation as buyers defended the new range.
Phase 4 – Surge to 117.50K+ (early 2 Oct)
With115.00K converted to support, BTC accelerated to the next gridline,~117.50K, and briefly above it.
Driver:clearing115.00Kremoved overhead supply; momentum picked up (the shaded volume base also thickens a touch here), producing a fast leg.
Phase 5 – Extension above 120.00K, then mild fade (late 2 Oct–3 Oct)
Price ground higher from~118.00Kto a weeklypeak just above 120.00K(the line sits over the120.00Klabel), then slipped modestly to endaround 120.00K.
Driver:trend follow-through into round-number resistance (120.00K), followed by routine profit-taking; no reversal structure is visible—just a gentle pullback after a strong run.
Conclusion & possible paths:
This was a structurally healthy up-week: base at 110.00K, break, consolidation, second leg, and a controlled pullback near120.00K. Looking forward (still chart-only), the key levels to watch are the ones the move respected on the way up. Holding~117.50Kkeeps the uptrend intact and favors a re-test and possible break of the~120.00K+highs. Losing~117.50Kwould shift focus to~115.00K, and below that,~112.50K—a deeper mean-reversion into the prior step. As long as closes stay above~117.50K, momentum and the week’s higher-high/higher-low structure continue to argue for the upside case.
2. Market Trends and Macro Background
Capital Flows
ETF Flows
ETF Flow diagram
Through the week, U.S. spot BTC ETFs flipped from a late-September outflow tofour straight, large positive sessions, in lockstep with the price acceleration on your chart.
- –$418.3m net outflow (risk off into the weekend).
- +$518.0m net inflow (regime shift to net buying).
Tue, Sep 30: +$429.9mnet inflow. - +$675.8mnet inflow (largest of the week).
- +$627.2m net inflow.
That’s +$2.25bn of cumulative inflow from Sep 29 → Oct 2, immediately preceding/overlapping the price’s step-ups from the low-110Ks through the high-110Ks into ~120K on your chart. The ETF tape is theclearest, high-frequency demand signalfor spot BTC now: it represents new fiat buying pressure, and the mid-week acceleration (Oct 1–2) coincides with the chart’s strongest leg higher.
Technical Indicator Analysis
1. Relative Strength Index (RSI 14)
The BITBO chart plots BTC price (log scale) with a scatter of RSI values on a 10–90 axis; visually, the recent 2025 prints are below the 80–90 zone that coincided with major cyclical tops (e.g., 2013, 2017, 2021 on the same panel). In RSI convention, readings >70 are commonly labeled overbought and <30 oversold; by inspection, this week’s dots are not pinned at the upper-90/90 extreme—i.e., momentum is strong but not yet in the historical “exhaustion” band that has preceded local peaks on this very chart. That positioning helps explain why the week’s rallies could extend in steps without immediately reversing: there was fuel for trend continuation, yet not the kind of RSI saturation that often ends an advance.
Prospectively, if daily/weekly RSI climbs toward the high-70s/80s, the probability of a shake-out or sideways digestion increases; if it holds mid-range and resets on small pullbacks, that typically recharges the trend for further highs before any larger correction.
Bitcoin 14-day RSI chart
Market Sentiment Analysis
The CMC Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose from 32 last week (Fear) to 57 now (Neutral), withyesterday at 51andlast month at 42. That’s a +25-point week-over-week jump, moving the market from outright risk aversion into a neutral/constructive stance. Historically on this gauge, readings around 50–60 mark the transition where buyers begin leaning in after drawdowns, while extremes above ~75 often coincide with short-term overheating.
The same dashboard also frames a longer backdrop—yearly high 88 (Extreme Greed) on Nov 21, 2024andyearly low 15 (Extreme Fear) on Mar 11, 2025—underscoring that the current57isneither euphoric nor distressed, which helps explain why breakouts on the BTC chart this week were followed byorderlyrather than blow-off price action. Going forward, if this indexsustains 55–65and grinds higher toward the70s, it tends to reinforce momentum and dip-buying; a spike into the80–90band would raise the odds of a near-term pullback, while a slip back toward40–45would argue for consolidation instead of immediate continuation.
Fear & Greed Index chart
Macroeconomic Background
1. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields eased
Market Yield on US Treasury diagram
The U.S. 10-year yield fell from 4.20% (Sep 26) to 4.12% (Oct 1), with 4.15% (Sep 29) and 4.16% (Sep 30) in between. That’s a ~8 bps decline into the exact window when BTC’s up-leg accelerated. Lower long-end yields generally loosen financial conditions and raise the present value of risk assets (including crypto), and they often travel alongside rising “Fed-cut” odds and softer real-rate expectations—both supportive of multiples/risk appetite.
The yield drift lower removed a macro headwind right as ETF demand ramped. From a timing standpoint, thedrop to 4.12% on Oct 1lines up with thelargest daily ETF inflow (+$675.8m)and thesteepest slopeon your price chart. Even without invoking any single news headline, the combo ofeasing discount rates+hard ETF cash demandis exactly the cocktail that produces the kind of step-function seen from the mid-110Ks toward ~120K.
2. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) weakened into a breakout window, easing a key headwind for BTC.
DXY Diagram
Across the same week in the referenced price chart, the Dollar Index slipped from 98.15 (Fri, Sep 26) to 97.90 (Fri, Oct 3), with the weekly low at 97.52 (Thu, Oct 2) and a local high at 98.50 (Sep 26). Day by day, DXY printed 97.91 (Mon, Sep 29) → 97.78 (Tue, Sep 30) → 97.71 (Wed, Oct 1) → 97.85 (Thu, Oct 2) → 97.90 (Fri, Oct 3). Measured peak-to-trough, that is a –0.98 index-point swing (98.50 → 97.52), and –0.25 on a weekly close-to-close basis (98.15 → 97.90). Because BTC is typically negatively correlated with the dollar on risk-on weeks, a softer DXY mechanically reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding risk assets and loosens global USD financial conditions at the margin.
The timing matters: the index’s intraweek trough (97.52 on Oct 2) overlaps with the steepest leg higher on the BTC chart, which is exactly when momentum buyers tend to press crypto as USD headwinds abate. Put differently, the market did not need a collapse in the dollar—just a drift lower through 98 → 97.7 → 97.5 was enough to let spot demand (from ETFs and discretionary traders) pull BTC through overhead levels toward ~120K. Looking ahead, if DXY breaks below ~97.50 and sustains sub-97.7, the same channel that helped the week’s rally should continue to support higher BTC, whereas a rebound back above ~98.50 (the week’s high) would likely stiffen resistance and increase the risk of a BTC pause or retrace.
3. Mining Revenue
The Y Charts one-month panel displays daily total miner revenue and ends at $52.01 million on Sep 29, 2025, down from $57.69 million the previous day (a –9.86% day-over-day change) and up from $32.39 million a year earlier (+60.54%). These figures are the headline cash flow miners captured from block subsidies + transaction fees and match the “Bitcoin Miners Revenue Per Day” series.
The yellow seven-day panel is the Hashprice Index (USD/PH/s/day), i.e., expected revenue per unit of hashpower. Hashprice is defined by Luxor/Hashrate Index as the daily expected value of 1 PH/s of hashrate, and it can be quoted in USD or BTC; it collapses the economic effects of BTC price, block rewards/fees, and network difficulty into a single revenue-per-hash figure.
Over the same week, independent updates around the hashprice confirm the moves visible in the yellow curve: USD hashprice fell 5.62% from $53.77 per PH/s/day to $50.75 per PH/s/day into Sep 29, then rebounded as spot BTC rallied; on Oct 1, hashprice recovered above $51/PH/s/day alongside BTC printing ~$116,000, before easing again.
Read together, the two panels say the following. First, aggregate miner revenue remained elevated in absolute USD terms (>$50M/day) thanks to a higher BTC price regime than a year ago, even as revenue per unit of hashrate (hashprice) was pressured by more competition. Second, the week’s intraday swings in hashprice were tightly beta-linked to BTC price impulses: when BTC jumped, the yellow line climbed above $51; when price cooled and difficulty adjustments loomed, the index slipped back toward $50–51. The result was a “high-level flat with volatility” cash flow profile: big absolute dollars to the sector ($52.01M on Sep 29) but a lower take-rate per PH/s than earlier in the month ($53.77 → $50.75, –5.62%).
Why revenue per hash lagged total revenue
Two structural forces explain the divergence. (1) Difficulty/hashrate growth increases the denominator of revenue per hash, diluting each miner’s slice even if sector-wide dollars stay high. Public dashboards show the network hash rate near 0.991 EH/s (990.62M TH/s) on Sep 29, a level that reflects sustained hardware additions; higher hashrate at unchanged block economics mechanically pushes hashprice down.
Fee intensity normalized after prior fee spikes. Because daily miner revenue equals subsidy + fees, days with soft mempool pressure will show lower total revenue (e.g., the –9.86% day-over-day dip to $52.01M) even if the BTC/USD price is stable.
In short, the purple panel captures sector dollars, while the yellow panel captures per-PH/s economics; this week saw healthy sector dollars but compression in per-hash earnings until the early-October price pop briefly lifted hashprice back above $51/PH/s/day.
Operational implications for miners
At ~$50–51 per PH/s/day, marginal cash flow depends heavily on power price and fleet efficiency. Operators running new-gen rigs (e.g., S21/M66 class) at <25–28 J/TH and power ≤$0.05/kWh generally maintain positive gross margins at this hashprice range; older fleets or sites above $0.07–0.08/kWh face tighter spreads and may throttle or pursue curtailment/ancillary-services revenue to stabilize cash flow. The –5.62% slide in hashprice into Sep 29 underscores why hedging (hashprice or power) and firm-flexible offtake matter, while the > $51 rebound on Oct 1 illustrates the upside convexity when BTC rallies.
Predictions
Two near-term swing variables dominate revenue: (i) BTC/USD—if price holds the week’s breakout levels, history suggests hashprice remains ≥$50/PH/s/day; if spot slips, expect reversion toward the high-40s. (ii) Difficulty—with hashrate elevated (~990.62M TH/s late Sep), the next positive difficulty adjustment would shave a few percent off hashprice unless offset by higher BTC or renewed fee spikes; conversely, any difficulty softening would expand per-PH/s earnings immediately.
BTC daily miner revenue chart
Bitcoin Hashrate diagram
4. Policy and Regulatory News
1) ESRB warns EU on cross-border stablecoin gaps — Oct 2, 2025
The European Systemic Risk Board urged “urgent safeguards” for multi-issuer stablecoin schemes that straddle EU and non-EU jurisdictions, warning of liquidity strains during stress despite MiCA’s backing rules for EU issuers. The call highlights a risk of regulatory arbitrage and a potential run dynamic if redemptions concentrate in the stricter EU perimeter.
2) Bank of England’s Bailey: widely used stablecoins must be regulated “like money” — Oct 1, 2025
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said widely used stablecoins should face money-like standards, reinforcing the UK’s stance that systemic tokens require robust backing and redemption frameworks. The remarks add pressure for aligned rules as global stablecoin capitalization expands.
3) U.S. Senate Finance Committee holds crypto-tax hearing — Oct 1, 2025
Senators probed how the IRS will implement new brokerage reporting and navigate unresolved issues, underscoring near-term compliance friction for exchanges and custodians as large volumes of data head to the tax agency.
4) IRS guidance on corporate minimum tax (CAMT) clarifies digital-asset treatment — Sep 30, 2025
Notice 2025-49 addresses how digital-asset firms should compute CAMT AFSI, allowing exclusion of unrealized gains/losses on digital assets held at fair value — a material clarification for listed crypto companies’ tax bases.
5) SEC staff no-action letter signals openness to state-chartered trust custody — Sep 30, 2025
An SEC staff position indicated that state-chartered trusts can be acceptable crypto custodians, potentially broadening the U.S. custody landscape beyond national banks; one commissioner dissented, showing policy debate persists.
6) SEC’s accommodation to decentralized infra project draws Commissioner support — Sep 30, 2025 (updated)
Following the agency’s favorable posture toward DoubleZero token distributions, Commissioner Hester Peirce said the decision reflects a “get-out-of-the-way” approach for decentralized infrastructure, hinting at evolving token-distribution doctrine.
7) ECB Executive Board speech flags cross-border stablecoin risks — Sep 26, 2025
An ECB speech argued that stablecoins issued by non-EU firms could create dependencies and currency substitution risks, reinforcing the bloc’s caution on third-country tokens as use cases extend beyond crypto trading into payments.
8) Bloomberg: U.S. bank lobby renews push over stablecoin rewards restrictions — Oct 2, 2025
A policy newsletter noted that after the GENIUS Act prohibited sharing yield with stablecoin users, banks intensified lobbying around deposit-competition concerns — a live policy fault line shaping product design for U.S. dollar tokens.
9) Reuters at TOKEN2049: Singapore’s policy environment draws global crypto leaders — Oct 2, 2025
Coverage of TOKEN2049 Singapore highlighted the city-state’s role as a crypto hub amid Asia’s rising volumes ($2.36T regional activity cited at the event) and ongoing regulatory positioning around stablecoins and market structure.
10) Reuters: Brazil exchange readies listing of bitcoin-treasury company — Oct 1, 2025
Brazil’s B3 exchange will list OranjeBTC via a reverse-IPO route, offering equity exposure to a firm holding 3,650 BTC (>$420M). While corporate, the move reflects securities-market channels opening for bitcoin-treasury strategies under local rules.
9. Mining News
1) Difficulty at a record 150.84T pushes hashprice lower — Oct 2, 2025
A surge in network hash rate droveBitcoin difficulty to 150.84 trillion, compressing miner margins asUSD hashpricesagged despite spot-price strength. The new ATH underscores competition pressure across fleets.
2) Canaan lands largest U.S. order in three years — Oct 2, 2025
ASIC makerCanaansold50,000+ Avalon A15 Prounits to a U.S. miner, sending shares up12% pre-market(and18%the prior day). Deliveries are slated for Q4 2025, signaling continued capex despite rising difficulty.
3) JP Morgan: miners’ combined market cap tops $50B, hits $56B in Sep — Oct 1, 2025
A bank survey of14 U.S.-listed minersfound aggregate equity value> $50Bfor the first time, up43% MoM to $56B, even as revenue slipped10%in August on a higher hashrate base.
4) Hashrate Index weekly: fees down, hashprice down into Sep 29 — Sep 29, 2025
Luxor’s roundup reported miners earned ~3,271 BTC(≈$364M) over the week, with fees just0.65%(~21 BTC, ≈$2.35M), explaining muted top-line upside and weaker hashprice ahead of October’s rebound.
5) Clean-energy surplus lures miners to Brazil — Sep 30, 2025
Brazil’s chronicrenewables glutis drawing miners: projects includeRenova Energia’s $200M, 100-MW wind-powered site in Bahia; firms likeTetherandEnegixare negotiating power deals, positioning mining as a buyer of stranded generation.
6) Cointelegraph recap: difficulty stair-steps to 150.84T — Oct 2, 2025
A separate report noted difficulty milestones (127.6T in Aug,134.7T on Sep 5) culminating in150.84T on Oct 2, contextualizing the profitability squeeze that coincided with this week’s network adjustment.
7) Cipher pivots toward AI/HPC revenue streams — Sep 29, 2025
Broker Canaccord highlighted Cipheras the latest miner leaning intoAI data-centerdemand, raising its price target to $16 from $12. The shift reflects sector hedging against post-halving hashprice volatility.
8) Reuters weekly video: Brazil mining build-out tops crypto headlines — Oct 2, 2025
A Reuters round-up spotlighted how deploying miners into Brazil’s power surplus could monetize otherwise wasted clean electricity, reinforcing the week’s theme of energy-arbitrage-driven expansion.
9) OranjeBTC’s B3 listing highlights treasury-plus-mining strategies — Oct 1, 2025
The impendingB3debut of OranjeBTC (holding3,650 BTC) reflects the rising legitimacy of bitcoin-native corporates in Latin America, many of which blend treasury exposure withmining or infrastructureinvestments.
10) Market backdrop: miners’ capex cycle persists despite margin pressure — Oct 2, 2025
This week’sdifficulty ATHalongsidelarge ASIC procurement(Canaan’s 50k+ sale) signals a continued arms race: fleets are addingnew-gen rigsto stay cost-competitive as fee share remains low and hashprice oscillates around profitability thresholds.
