Many ask: “With SOLO mining, will I never win in my lifetime?” In fact, it’s like running a lottery machine 24/7:
- Some miners never win.
- Others suddenly hit the jackpot!
Today, let’s look at it from two perspectives:
- 👉 The Difficulty
- 👉 The Possibility
🎰 SOLO = A Continuous Lottery
Buying lottery tickets: you buy once → wait for the draw.
SOLO mining: your machine keeps solving hashes every second → every new block is a lottery draw.
In the Bitcoin network:
- On average, 1 block every 10 minutes
- ≈ 52,560 “draws” per year
In other words, your miner is buying lottery tickets all day long!
⏳ Expected Years to Win
Based on today’s Bitcoin network hashrate of 970 EH/s:
- 7 TH/s machine → ≈ 2,640 years
- 10 TH/s machine → ≈ 1,844 years
- 100 TH/s machine → ≈ 184 years
On Bitcoin mainnet SOLO, the probability is extremely low. That’s the truth.
🌟 Annual Winning Probability
Another way to look at it: What’s the chance to win within a year?
- 7 TH/s → 0.0379%
- 10 TH/s → 0.0542%
- 100 TH/s → 0.542%
Meaning: On Bitcoin SOLO, the odds are still tiny — but not zero!
👉 On smaller networks with lower total hashrate and faster block times, the annual winning probability can rise to several percent, or even tens or hundreds of percent. That’s the “hope” of SOLO mining.
📝 What Beginners Should Know
BTC SOLO: More about belief and ritual than steady income.
Smaller networks SOLO: Easier to experience the thrill of “winning.”
Three ways to improve your chances:
- Increase your hashrate (combine multiple machines)
- Choose coins with lower total network hashrate
- Choose networks with faster block times
💡 Final Tip for Beginners
Don’t treat SOLO mining like a salary. Treat it like buying endless lottery tickets. Even with small hashrate, you might still become the lucky one who suddenly wins a block.
