1.Bitcoin Market

From March 15 to March 21, 2025, the specific price movements of Bitcoin were as follows:

March 15

Bitcoin suddenly surged after the previous day's close, with the price rising from $82,976 to $85,043. The market then experienced a brief pullback, and the price oscillated within a narrow range between $83,790 and $84,640 for the rest of the day. In the evening, Bitcoin rebounded slightly from $83,792 to $84,453 and remained near that level in the short term.

March 16

Bitcoin continued its oscillating movement, with the overall price hovering around $84,400. After briefly dipping to $83,839, it quickly rebounded. In the afternoon, the market experienced intense volatility, with Bitcoin suddenly dropping from $84,271 to $82,490, then rebounding to $84,358, showing increased market tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

March 17

The market was in a fierce battle between bulls and bears, with dramatic price fluctuations. Bitcoin found short-term support around $83,700 and $83,000 but ultimately fell to $82,047 before temporarily pausing the downtrend. It then quickly rebounded to $83,777, but failed to stabilize and fell to $82,711 before rising again to $83,714. It then oscillated downward to $82,771, showing a narrowing range of consolidation.

March 18

Bitcoin broke through the consolidation range, rising to $84,572, then experienced a step-down decline, falling to $83,976, $83,062, and $82,361. After briefly rebounding to $83,343, it weakened again, eventually dropping below $82,000 to a low of $81,367.

March 19

Market sentiment began to turn positive, and Bitcoin started an upward rebound. Starting from $81,343, it briefly broke through $82,223, then continued rising to $83,110, maintaining an upward trend with oscillations, ultimately closing at $86,841.

March 20

Continuing the previous day's upward momentum, Bitcoin's price briefly retraced from $84,713 to $83,990, then rapidly surged, breaking through $85,907 and reaching a new local high of $87,427. However, the market saw sharp volatility, with Bitcoin quickly retracing to $85,082, rebounding to $86,303, then plunging again to a low of $83,727.

March 21

Bitcoin briefly tested the low before stabilizing and starting a new round of upward oscillations. It first rose to $84,285, then retraced before climbing further to $84,681. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was priced at $84,618, with the market overall entering a consolidation phase.

Summary

This week, Bitcoin showed an overall trend of falling then rising, with bulls and bears clashing multiple times. The first half of the week saw market pressure, with prices oscillating downward, while the second half saw a strong rebound, with the price breaking through key resistance levels before consolidating. As of now, Bitcoin's price remains near $84,600, with market sentiment stabilizing. Going forward, attention should be on whether it can further break through the key resistance area.

Bitcoin Price Movements (2025/03/15-2025/03/21)

2.Market Dynamics and Macroeconomic Background

Capital Flow

Exchange Fund Flow

Bitcoin Spot ETF Outflows: As of March 14, 2025, the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF has reduced its holdings by 55,348 Bitcoin over the past 35 days, a 4.76% decrease, reflecting a decline in institutional investor demand.
Gold vs. Bitcoin ETF Capital Flows: In the past 30 days, gold ETFs attracted $10 billion in inflows, while Bitcoin ETFs experienced $5 billion in outflows. This trend suggests that some investors are shifting funds from Bitcoin to traditional safe-haven assets like gold.

Whale Holdings and Trading Dynamics

Surge in Whale Trading Activity: During the week starting March 15, Bitcoin's large transaction volume reached $32 billion, then surged by 40% to $42.9 billion, indicating a significant increase in whale demand, with $13 billion added in a short period.
Whale Holdings Changes: According to IntoTheBlock data, Bitcoin whale holdings have been decreasing over the past year, but March data shows a potential reversal of this trend. Whales have accumulated 62,000 more Bitcoin since the beginning of the month, indicating that they are reaccumulating positions.
Whale Short Position Opening: On March 16, 2025, an anonymous trader, “0xf3f,” opened a $379 million Bitcoin short position using $16.2 million in margin and 40x leverage on the decentralized derivatives exchange Hyperliquid. The liquidation price was set at $86,593. This move has drawn significant market attention and increased volatility.
Whale Position Closing: On-chain analyst monitoring shows that the “Hyperliquid 50x whale” used a Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP) strategy to gradually close their Bitcoin short positions. In an hour and a half, they closed 108 BTC, leaving 5,500 BTC short positions with a market value of approximately $455 million.

Technical Indicator Analysis

Moving Averages (MA):

• Short-term MAs (5-day, 10-day): Show buy signals, indicating a short-term upward price trend.
• Long-term MAs (50-day, 200-day): Also show buy signals, suggesting a continued bullish long-term trend.

Relative Strength Index (RSI):

• The RSI is in the overbought zone, issuing a strong buy signal but with caution needed for potential short-term pullbacks.

Stochastic Indicator:

• The Stochastic indicator is also showing strong buy signals, further supporting the short-term upward trend.

Overall, multiple technical indicators point to Bitcoin being in a strong buy zone, with both short-term and long-term trends remaining upward. However, since the RSI is at a high level, attention should be paid to the risk of an overbought pullback. Investors are advised to be cautious and align their strategies with their risk tolerance.

Market Sentiment

Panic Sentiment Fading: According to on-chain analyst Murphy, market panic sentiment has gradually weakened after reaching its peak. The panic selling behavior at lower prices has notably decreased, and sentiment is quietly recovering.
Increased Dip-Buying Willingness: During the second pullback from March 7 to March 13, active buy orders for Bitcoin on the Coinbase platform increased significantly, showing strong interest from U.S. investors around the $80,000 Bitcoin level and a strong willingness to buy the dip.
Market Confidence Warming: Although prices have not fully reflected this shift in sentiment, the market seems to be waiting for a key trigger. From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve's meeting and subsequent remarks by Chairman Powell will be an important milestone. As long as the meeting results do not exceed the market's pessimistic expectations, combined with current data, Bitcoin has a foundation for a rebound in the short term.

Macroeconomic Background

Impact of Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve has kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged and plans two rate cuts in 2025. This policy has increased market demand for Bitcoin, pushing its price toward $86,000 or higher.

3.Hash Rate Changes

Between March 15, 2025, and March 21, 2025, the Bitcoin network's hash rate exhibited volatility, as detailed below:

On March 15, the hash rate showed an overall downward trend, initially rising from 790.37 EH/s to 814.94 EH/s, before sharply falling to 680.74 EH/s, and then quickly rebounding to 741.72 EH/s. On March 16, the hash rate dropped to 701.74 EH/s, then strongly rebounded to 924.43 EH/s, briefly maintaining that high level before entering a correction phase, reaching a low of 793.49 EH/s. On March 17, the hash rate continued the previous day's oscillating trend, first dropping to 696.23 EH/s, then gradually rising to 812.89 EH/s, followed by a slight decline to 779.32 EH/s during the day. On March 18, the hash rate briefly climbed to 861.48 EH/s before entering a correction phase, gradually decreasing to 731.93 EH/s. On March 19, the hash rate moved upward, peaking at 941.81 EH/s, before falling back to 813.10 EH/s and fluctuating within this range. On March 20, the hash rate initially dropped to 791.07 EH/s, then rebounded to 859.72 EH/s, followed by a minor adjustment before rising further to 865.68 EH/s, but then steadily decreased, reaching a low of 762.04 EH/s, and eventually rebounded to 800.32 EH/s. On March 21, as of the time of writing, the hash rate was showing a downward trend.

This week, the hash rate exhibited strong volatility, particularly with significant surges on March 16 and March 19, possibly due to miner hash power adjustments, changes in market sentiment, or fluctuations in energy supply. Future trends should continue to monitor the distribution of overall network hash rate, mining difficulty adjustments, and changes in the macro market environment.

Bitcoin Network Hash Rate Data

4.Mining Revenue

Between March 15, 2025, and March 21, 2025, Bitcoin miners' earnings were influenced by multiple factors, including Bitcoin price fluctuations, mining difficulty adjustments, and market sentiment.

On March 17, CoinDesk reported that JPMorgan Chase (JPM) released a research report on Monday indicating a slight increase in Bitcoin network hash rate in March, which has led to a decline in mining economics.

The report noted that U.S.-listed mining companies maintained about 30% of the network's hash rate share. At the same time, the average Bitcoin price during the period dropped by about 10%, putting pressure on mining profitability. The hash rate price (a measure of daily mining profitability) remained relatively unchanged compared to the end of last month. In the first two weeks of March, miners' daily block reward income per EH/s was about$48,300, an 11% decrease from February and a 52% drop since the April halving event last year.

The total market value of the 14 U.S.-listed mining companies tracked by JPMorgan declined by 13% from the previous month, a loss of about$3 billion. Among them, Argo Blockchain (ARGO) performed the best, rising by 1%, while Cipher Mining performed the worst, falling by 25%. The report added that during the same period, only one of the mining companies covered by the bank outperformed Bitcoin.

In summary, although the Bitcoin network hash rate continues to grow, the decline in Bitcoin prices is putting further pressure on miners' profitability, which is facing additional contraction.

5.Energy Costs and Mining Efficiency

According to data from CloverPool, as of the time of writing, the total Bitcoin network hash rate has reached approximately785.48 EH/s, with the current mining difficulty at112.15 T. Based on the current trend, it is expected that during the next difficulty adjustment (approximately in 2 days), Bitcoin mining difficulty will increase by around0.51%, reaching112.72 T.

According to the latest data from MacroMicro, the total production cost of Bitcoin on March 19 was approximately$88,101.12, with the Mining Cost-to-Price Ratio standing at1.01. This means that the cost of mining one Bitcoin is almost equal to its market price, leading to relatively small profit margins for miners. This ratio reflects the operational pressure on miners, especially in situations where Bitcoin's price is highly volatile, making miners' profitability more sensitive.

In this context, miners not only need to constantly improve mining efficiency but also optimize energy usage to ensure profitability amidst fierce competition. In the future, as the Bitcoin network's hash rate is expected to continue growing, miners may need to increasingly rely on advanced cooling technologies, solar energy, and other renewable energy sources to reduce their carbon footprint and energy costs, thereby gaining a competitive edge in the long-term competition.

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Data

6.Policy and Regulatory News

Bitcoin-related Legislative Developments in U.S. States

Kentucky

On March 15, the Kentucky State Senate passed theBlockchain Digital Assets Act (HB 701)with a unanimous vote of 37-0. The bill has now been submitted to the governor's office for final approval. The bill confirms the right of individuals to self-custody digital assets through self-hosted wallets and prevents local governments from implementing discriminatory laws against digital asset mining businesses, ensuring that Bitcoin miners can operate freely in the state.

North Carolina

On March 19, the North Carolina State Senate introducedSB327, a bill that authorizes the state’s finance department to allocate up to 10% of public funds into Bitcoin. The bill stipulates that the purchased Bitcoin will be stored in multi-signature cold storage and audited monthly. The sale of Bitcoin will only be allowed under “severe financial crises” and under strict conditions. North Carolina has currently proposed two Bitcoin reserve bills:House Bill HB92andSenate Bill SB327. The state's general fund is approximately $9.5 billion.

Missouri

On March 20, Missouri'sBitcoin Reserve Bill (HB1217)was submitted to the House Special Committee on Governmental Affairs. This bill is part of Missouri’s strategic Bitcoin reserve (SBR) initiative, which has been progressing slowly and is now in the committee stage.

Political Support for Bitcoin Reserve Plans

Cynthia Lummis

On March 17, SenatorCynthia Lummis introduced a plan for the government to purchase 1 million Bitcoins, which has gained the support of 12 U.S. politicians. The plan aims to strengthen the U.S. Bitcoin reserves and push for the legalization of Bitcoin as a digital asset.

Nick Begich

On March 18, U.S. CongressmanNick Begich stated that the U.S. should purchase and hold between 5% to 15% of total Bitcoin supply to mitigate the risks of fiat currency collapse. He believes that Bitcoin reserves will provide emergency support for the American people. Begich has previously called for the U.S. to become a Bitcoin superpower and announced plans to introduce a Bitcoin bill in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2025.

Bank of Korea: Never Considered Including Bitcoin in Foreign Exchange Reserves

On March 17, the Bank of Korea clearly stated that it "has never considered including Bitcoin in its foreign exchange reserves." The Bank of Korea responded to a written inquiry from National Assembly member and Planning and Finance Committee member, Cha Gye-geun (phonetic), on March 16, saying, "We believe that the issue of including Bitcoin in foreign exchange reserves needs to be approached with caution." This is the first time the Bank of Korea has made a public statement on the issue of Bitcoin reserves.

The first reason for the Bank of Korea's negative stance is the high volatility of Bitcoin’s price. In this regard, the Bank of Korea noted: "If the virtual asset market becomes unstable, Bitcoin may face the risk of significantly higher transaction costs during the process of liquidation." Furthermore, the Bank of Korea also stated: "We believe that Bitcoin does not meet the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s criteria for foreign exchange reserve calculation." Based on these reasons, the Bank of Korea replied, "To date, we have never discussed or considered including Bitcoin in our foreign exchange reserves." The Bank of Korea also added: "According to reports, some countries, such as the Czech Republic and Brazil, have a positive attitude toward this, but institutions such as the European Central Bank (ECB), the Swiss National Bank, and the Japanese government have expressed opposition."

Former Federal Congressman from São Paulo, Brazil, Submits Bill to Legalize Bitcoin Salary Payments in Brazil

On March 17, Luiz Phillipe of Orleans-Braganza, former Federal Congressman from São Paulo, submitted a bill to the Brazilian Congress seeking to legalize Bitcoin salary payments. The legislator proposed a law allowing workers in Brazil to receive wages and labor benefits in cryptocurrency form.

The bill aims to allow workers to receive up to 50% of their wages and benefits in digital assets. Notably, the bill does not mandate that Bitcoin be accepted, but provides a legal foundation for residents who wish to engage with emerging technologies. With the employer’s consent, employees can opt to receive their labor benefits in Bitcoin and can terminate this payment method at any time. The bill also stipulates that 50% of wages must still be paid in Brazilian Reais to ensure currency usability. However, this provision does not apply to freelancers, foreigners, and self-employed individuals, and such matters will be regulated by the Brazilian Central Bank. The proposal needs to be passed by a majority vote in the House of Representatives before moving to the Federal Senate for final approval.

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Trump Promises to Make the U.S. a Bitcoin Superpower

On March 20, U.S. President Donald Trump delivered a pre-recorded speech at the Blockworks Digital Assets Summit in New York City, emphasizing that the U.S. will become "the undisputed Bitcoin superpower and the global capital of cryptocurrency." He announced plans to end the previous administration's regulatory restrictions on cryptocurrency and called on Congress to pass legislation that sets clear rules for stablecoins and market structure to promote innovation and investment. Trump also mentioned recent initiatives, including holding the White House Digital Assets Summit and establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve, aimed at solidifying the U.S.'s leadership in the cryptocurrency field.

He stated that these measures would unlock economic growth potential and enhance the U.S.'s leading position in the global fintech sector.

7.Mining News

Thailand Seizes 63 Illegal Cryptocurrency Mining Machines, Stolen Electricity Worth Over $327,000

On March 17, news reported that officers from Thailand's Central Investigation Bureau (CIB) seized 63 illegal cryptocurrency mining machines last Friday. These illegal mining devices, valued at approximately 2 million Thai Baht ($60,000), were found in three abandoned houses in Pathum Thani province. Local residents had complained about unknown individuals stealing electricity from power poles and transformers in the area, prompting an official raid. Locals suspected that the stolen electricity was being used for cryptocurrency mining operations hidden in the abandoned buildings. Investigators estimate that the electricity stolen for cryptocurrency mining in these three houses caused an estimated loss of over 11 million Thai Baht ($327,000) to the local electricity authority.

8.Bitcoin News

Global Enterprises and National Bitcoin Holdings Update (Weekly Report)

• El Salvador

On March 15, El Salvador added one Bitcoin to its reserve fund. Over the past seven days, El Salvador increased its holdings by 13 Bitcoins, bringing the total to 6,117.18 Bitcoins, with an estimated total value of approximately $515.5 million.

• Lazarus Group / North Korea

The Lazarus Group now holds 13,562 Bitcoins, propelling North Korea’s Bitcoin reserves to surpass those of El Salvador and Bhutan, making it the third-largest Bitcoin holder globally, only behind the United States and the United Kingdom.

• Strategy

From March 10 to 16, Strategy increased its holdings by 130 Bitcoins, bringing its total holdings to 499,226 Bitcoins, with an average purchase price of $82,981. Additionally, the company plans to issue 5 million preferred shares to raise funds, continuing its Bitcoin reserve strategy.

• Metaplanet

Metaplanet issued 2 billion Japanese yen (approximately $13.38 million) in zero-interest bonds to purchase more Bitcoins and announced the addition of 150 Bitcoins, bringing its total holdings to 3,200 Bitcoins.

Analyst: Bitcoin Is Going Through a "Shakeout" Rather Than the End of a Four-Year Cycle

On March 16, it was reported that Bitcoin is currently 22% below the historical high of $109,000 set on January 20, Trump’s inauguration day. Despite investor sentiment dipping into the "extreme fear" zone multiple times, crypto analysts generally believe that the Bitcoin bull market cycle is not over. This decline might be a "shakeout"—a sharp drop triggered by bulls liquidating their positions, followed by a rapid rebound.

Bitfinex analysts pointed out, "Several key technical indicators have turned bearish, leading to speculation about the premature end of the bull market. However, the four-year cycle of Bitcoin remains a key factor. History shows that pullbacks during bull markets are normal, and this is more likely to be a shakeout rather than the beginning of a bear market. The bottom for Bitcoin might align with the U.S. stock market (especially the S&P 500). The $72,000 to $73,000 range remains a key support level, but global government bond yields and stock market trends will dictate Bitcoin's next move. The risks of a trade war have been partially priced in, but long-term economic pressures may dampen sentiment."

Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev stated, "Although Bitcoin's four-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has dropped to a historic low of 8%, the halving event still plays a crucial role in the long-term price trajectory. The upcoming halving in April 2024 will reduce the block reward to 3.125 BTC, and since then, Bitcoin has risen by more than 31%. While ETF purchases driven by institutional adoption were a major push last year, the halving effect will continue to influence the market."

Analyst: Bitcoin Bull Market May Return in June, Median Target Price Expected to Reach $126,000

On March 16, it was reported that Bitcoin has fallen 30% since reaching its peak in mid-January. However, network economist Timothy Peterson believes that the bull market could make a comeback. He stated, "Currently, Bitcoin's trading price is close to the low end of its historical seasonal range. Bitcoin's annual performance has almost always occurred in two months: April and October, which means Bitcoin could very well set a new all-time high before June, with a median target price of $126,000."

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Shen Yu: Strategy Amplifies Bitcoin's High Volatility by 2.5 Times and Transmits It to the U.S. Stock Market, Professional Institutions Use This High Volatility for Arbitrage

On March 17, Cobo co-founder and CEO Shen Yu stated that Strategy (MSTR) has cleverly designed a mechanism that amplifies Bitcoin's high volatility by 2.5 times and transmits it to the U.S. stock market.
Professional institutions use this high volatility for arbitrage to generate short-term profits. MSTR raises cash through issuing convertible bonds and ATM offerings to accumulate a large amount of Bitcoin. Ordinary shareholders bear the risk of extreme stock price fluctuations and short-term declines but passively benefit from the increased "Bitcoin yield" per share. Bitcoin holders benefit from the continuous market inflow and Bitcoin price appreciation.

CZ: Holding Bitcoin Has Surpassed 99% of Market Participants,The Final 1% of Winners Need Extraordinary Effort

On March 17, Binance founder CZ responded to EmperorBTC's views on social media, stating that only 5% of people in the market can survive long-term in the crypto space, of which:
• 4% are actively trading or involved in projects but still underperform Bitcoin in terms of returns.
• Only 1% can truly outperform Bitcoin, and this requires extraordinary effort.
CZ emphasized that holding Bitcoin long-term has already surpassed 99% of crypto market participants, outperforming most traditional assets, and requiring almost no active trading operations.

GSR Co-Founder: Bitcoin Returning to a Stable Zone Is Just a Matter of Time, Bull Market Is Still On

On March 18, GSR co-founder and Yellow founder, a cryptocurrency clearinghouse, stated, "Bitcoin's value remains unchanged, it's still worth $100,000, it's just currently discounted by 20% due to risks and uncertainties. Bitcoin returning to a stable zone is just a matter of time. If we eliminate all uncertainties, Bitcoin will appreciate. We are in a bull market."
Despite U.S. President Donald Trump's sudden shift to support the crypto industry, his government's aggressive tariff policies have led to investor flight, causing Bitcoin to fall over 20% from its historical high on January 20, Trump's inauguration day.
At the same time, with the VIX (a volatility index) soaring above 50% this month, investors are flocking to gold. Gold set a new record of $3,000 per ounce in March. Sirkia stated, "In the eyes of institutions, Bitcoin is not seen as a long-term asset like gold."

Cathie Wood: Most Memecoins May Go to Zero, Bitcoin Could Reach $1 Million by 2030

On March 19, Cathie Wood stated that most Memecoins may ultimately become "worthless" and warned investors to be cautious.
She pointed out that the combination of blockchain technology and AI is spawning "millions" of Memecoins, but ARK's private equity fund will not invest in these assets. Wood believes that Memecoins may evolve into "digital collectibles," with only a few surviving the test of time, possibly including the Memecoin launched by Trump.
Additionally, she reiterated her bullish outlook on mainstream crypto assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, and predicted that Bitcoin could break $1 million by 2030.

Bitwise CIO: Continuing to Buy Bitcoin During Crisis Moments, Typically Leads to Higher Returns Within the Following Year

On March 19, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that Bitcoin's response to crisis moments—such as the recent pullback driven by President Trump's tariffs—depends on Wall Street's valuation of the asset and its "invisible hand" drip effects on the market. While Bitcoin is often described as a long-term hedge asset, it tends to experience sharp pullbacks during short-term volatility, which frustrates many investors. Bitcoin's average drawdown is 30% higher than the S&P 500 index's drawdown, but those who continue to invest or buy more after a pullback typically see an average return of 190% in the following year. This "fall then rise" pattern is one of the common trends in the cryptocurrency market.

10x Research: U.S. Inflation Fears Easing, Bitcoin Could Rise Above $90,000

On March 19, 10x Research CEO Markus Thielen stated that despite general concerns among investors, Bitcoin could potentially rise above $90,000 due to easing inflation fears in the U.S. He added, "Given the oversold price, we can expect some countertrend rebounds, and the Federal Reserve is likely to adopt a more dovish stance, making some adjustments. This could put Bitcoin in a broader consolidation range, but it is entirely possible for it to return to $90,000."

Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev mentioned that traders and investors will be closely watching any news related to the end of the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Tightening (QT) plan, as this move could increase liquidity. The Fed's upcoming decisions could act as a major catalyst for further movements. If Chairman Powell adopts a dovish stance, Bitcoin could soar with renewed bulliRelated images.

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